I have now opened up a new flickr page, which has no photos on it as yet. this is also going to be linked into the web page, so I now have links to attach for:-
http://www.antonymay.co.uk
honzomay@yahoo.co.uk
http://www.flickr.com/photos/antonymay
http://www.flickr.com/people/antonymay
The list continues to grow, but the page content is at a halt due to the lack of serial number for creative suite,, I now have to wait upto 48hrs for it to be released.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Considerations
Things to consider when launching anything on the web!
Not only do I have to decide on how the web page is going to look and what content will be on it, I also have to consider how and what on it will be viewed.
A computer/laptop, projection, p.d.a, wirless mp4 players etc.
each one of these has to be considered. The blog and any other link will also have to be considered.
Not only do I have to decide on how the web page is going to look and what content will be on it, I also have to consider how and what on it will be viewed.
A computer/laptop, projection, p.d.a, wirless mp4 players etc.
each one of these has to be considered. The blog and any other link will also have to be considered.
Other Photo based blogs
Here is a list of other types of photography blogs:-
http://photoblog.hinius.net/
http://www.catherinejamieson.com/
http://www.chromasia.com/iblog/
http://wvs.topleftpixel.com/
http://www.travisruse.com/
http://www.photoblogs.org/
http://www.photojunkie.ca/
http://www.quarlo.com/
http://www.rion.nu/
http://www.sh1ft.org/shutterbug/
http://shutterbug.nu/
http://www.tenyearsofmylife.com/
These are a little different from the blog I have set up, but they are similar to the web site I am trying to create..
I hope to be using the web site for all of my portfolio work during uni..
http://photoblog.hinius.net/
http://www.catherinejamieson.com/
http://www.chromasia.com/iblog/
http://wvs.topleftpixel.com/
http://www.travisruse.com/
http://www.photoblogs.org/
http://www.photojunkie.ca/
http://www.quarlo.com/
http://www.rion.nu/
http://www.sh1ft.org/shutterbug/
http://shutterbug.nu/
http://www.tenyearsofmylife.com/
These are a little different from the blog I have set up, but they are similar to the web site I am trying to create..
I hope to be using the web site for all of my portfolio work during uni..
Rough Guide to Blogging
What are blogs for?
Essentially an online diary/journal
How many blogs are there?
Around 100.000 new blogs are created daily, approx 8 to 30 million blogs out there and expanding rapidly.
To expand your blog, add your url to search engines, for example:-
www.google.com/addurl.html
submit.search.yahoo.com
Essentially an online diary/journal
How many blogs are there?
Around 100.000 new blogs are created daily, approx 8 to 30 million blogs out there and expanding rapidly.
To expand your blog, add your url to search engines, for example:-
www.google.com/addurl.html
submit.search.yahoo.com
Adobe
Well I have just called adobe to see if they received my e-mail with attached for and i.d. I was transfered to the dutch as an overflow, he managed to confirm that the e-mail etc had been sent but was unable to tell me when the serial number would be released....
I now have to wait, I hate that..
I now have to wait, I hate that..
Extra work
I found out that I now have a photoshop project to do! now that I have no bloody serial number to use the programme!
I have to deliver either a single image, or a 10 second video in appropriate web format. All material should be no larger than 480 pixels wide by 240 pixels high. Additionally, I may want to provide some context for the viral, e.g. a weg page.
I feel a joint project coming on... we need to get together on this one.....
I have to deliver either a single image, or a 10 second video in appropriate web format. All material should be no larger than 480 pixels wide by 240 pixels high. Additionally, I may want to provide some context for the viral, e.g. a weg page.
I feel a joint project coming on... we need to get together on this one.....
Frustrations
I am in deep frustration at the moment, I purchased creative suite, student edition last week, I then followed the instructions to fax off my form and i.d. so I could be given the serial number to activate the programme.
I imagined that this would be enough time to finish the free trial and then go over to the full programme!
Of course the fax number does not work, so I cal Adobe and they tell me that if I e-mail the form with my customer number and i.d. this will be sorted out.
I then receive an email telling me that I did not attach the form nor the i.d.
I have tried again, and the free trial has run out, I now have no access to dreamweaver, flash, photoshop etc...
Arrrrrgggggghhhhhh!
I imagined that this would be enough time to finish the free trial and then go over to the full programme!
Of course the fax number does not work, so I cal Adobe and they tell me that if I e-mail the form with my customer number and i.d. this will be sorted out.
I then receive an email telling me that I did not attach the form nor the i.d.
I have tried again, and the free trial has run out, I now have no access to dreamweaver, flash, photoshop etc...
Arrrrrgggggghhhhhh!
Mum
I have asked my Mum to send over some Photo's of people of different ages to help me build up the collection, so not only have I used people from the U.K. I have also managed to have images of Australians, another example of the shift in destinations.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Web
From Photo Projects book,
A successful website should be quick to load and straightforward to navigate.
The images should be of optimum size and quality, the structure should be clear and the content should be accessible.
The golden rule when it comes to creating a successful website, is keep it simple.
Dark grey seems to be the best background color to use to highlight the images better, white can be over powering and bleach out the images.
A good average image size would be, 540 x 430 pixels for a 5x4 format image, or approx 600 x 400 pixels for a 35mm format frame, 490 x 490 for 6x6 and so on..
A successful website should be quick to load and straightforward to navigate.
The images should be of optimum size and quality, the structure should be clear and the content should be accessible.
The golden rule when it comes to creating a successful website, is keep it simple.
Dark grey seems to be the best background color to use to highlight the images better, white can be over powering and bleach out the images.
A good average image size would be, 540 x 430 pixels for a 5x4 format image, or approx 600 x 400 pixels for a 35mm format frame, 490 x 490 for 6x6 and so on..
Monday, October 22, 2007
Casualties of war
How many people died in all the wars, massacres, slaughters and oppressions of the Twentieth Century? Here are a few atrocitologists who have made estimates:
M. Cherif Bassouni, from an unspecified "1996" source which I have been unable to track down (Cited in an article in the Chicago Tribune, 25 Oct. 1998)
33 million "military casualties" (That's how the article phrased it, but I presume they mean military deaths.)
170 million killed in "conflicts of a non-international charater, internal conflicts and tyrannical regime victimization")
86M since the Second World War
TOTAL: 203,000,000
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control: Global Turmoil on the Eve of the Twenty-first Century (1993)
"Lives deliberately extinguished by politically motivated carnage":
167,000,000 to 175,000,000
Including:
War Dead: 87,500,000
Military war dead:
33,500,000
Civilian war dead:
54,000,000
Not-war Dead: 80,000,000
Communist oppression:
60,000,000
David Barrett, World Christian Encyclopedia (2001)
Christian martyrs only: 45.5M [commentary & context]
Stephane Courtois, The Black Book of Communism
Victims of Communism only: 85-100M
Milton Leitenberg [http://www.pcr.uu.se/Leitenberg_paper.pdf]
Politically caused deaths in the 20th C: 214M to 226M, incl...
Deaths in wars and conflicts, incl. civilian: 130M-142M
Political deaths, 1945-2000: 50M-51M
Not The Enemy Media [http://nottheenemy.com/index_files/Death%20Counts/Death%20Counts.htm]
Killed through U.S. foreign policy since WWII: 10,774,706 to 16,856,361 (1945-May 2003)
Rudolph J. Rummel, Death By Government
"Democides" - Government inflicted deaths (1900-87)
169,198,000
Including:
Communist Oppression: 110,286,000
Democratic democides: 2,028,000
Not included among democides:
Wars: 34,021,000
Non-Democidal Famine (often including famines associated with war and communist mismanagement):
China (1900-87): 49,275,000
Russia: (1921-47): 5,833,000
Total:
258,327,000 for all the categories listed here.
Me (Matthew White, Historical Atlas of the Twentieth Century, 2001):
Deaths by War and Oppression:
Genocide and Tyranny:
83,000,000
Military Deaths in War:
42,000,000
Civilian Deaths in War:
19,000,000
Man-made Famine:
44,000,000
TOTAL:
188,000,000
FAQ: How did you get these totals?
(Note: It's commonly said that more civilians than soldiers die in war, but you may notice that my numbers don't seem to agree with that. Before you jump to any conclusions, however, remember that most civilian deaths in war are intentional, and therefore fall into the "genocide and tyranny" category. Many others are the result of starvation.)
My estimate for the Communist share of the century's unpleasantness:
Genocide & Tyranny: 44M
(incl. intentional famine)
Man-made Famine: 37M
(excl. intentional famine)
Communist-inspired War (for example the Russian Civil War, Vietnam, Korea, etc.)
Military: 5M
Civilian: 6M
NOTE: With these numbers, I'm tallying every combat death and accidental civilian death in the war, without differentiating who died, who did it or who started it. According to whichever theory of Just War you are working from, the Communists may be entirely blameless, or entirely to blame, for these 11M dead.
TOTAL: 92M deaths by Communism.
RESIDUE: 96M deaths by non-Communism.
M. Cherif Bassouni, from an unspecified "1996" source which I have been unable to track down (Cited in an article in the Chicago Tribune, 25 Oct. 1998)
33 million "military casualties" (That's how the article phrased it, but I presume they mean military deaths.)
170 million killed in "conflicts of a non-international charater, internal conflicts and tyrannical regime victimization")
86M since the Second World War
TOTAL: 203,000,000
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control: Global Turmoil on the Eve of the Twenty-first Century (1993)
"Lives deliberately extinguished by politically motivated carnage":
167,000,000 to 175,000,000
Including:
War Dead: 87,500,000
Military war dead:
33,500,000
Civilian war dead:
54,000,000
Not-war Dead: 80,000,000
Communist oppression:
60,000,000
David Barrett, World Christian Encyclopedia (2001)
Christian martyrs only: 45.5M [commentary & context]
Stephane Courtois, The Black Book of Communism
Victims of Communism only: 85-100M
Milton Leitenberg [http://www.pcr.uu.se/Leitenberg_paper.pdf]
Politically caused deaths in the 20th C: 214M to 226M, incl...
Deaths in wars and conflicts, incl. civilian: 130M-142M
Political deaths, 1945-2000: 50M-51M
Not The Enemy Media [http://nottheenemy.com/index_files/Death%20Counts/Death%20Counts.htm]
Killed through U.S. foreign policy since WWII: 10,774,706 to 16,856,361 (1945-May 2003)
Rudolph J. Rummel, Death By Government
"Democides" - Government inflicted deaths (1900-87)
169,198,000
Including:
Communist Oppression: 110,286,000
Democratic democides: 2,028,000
Not included among democides:
Wars: 34,021,000
Non-Democidal Famine (often including famines associated with war and communist mismanagement):
China (1900-87): 49,275,000
Russia: (1921-47): 5,833,000
Total:
258,327,000 for all the categories listed here.
Me (Matthew White, Historical Atlas of the Twentieth Century, 2001):
Deaths by War and Oppression:
Genocide and Tyranny:
83,000,000
Military Deaths in War:
42,000,000
Civilian Deaths in War:
19,000,000
Man-made Famine:
44,000,000
TOTAL:
188,000,000
FAQ: How did you get these totals?
(Note: It's commonly said that more civilians than soldiers die in war, but you may notice that my numbers don't seem to agree with that. Before you jump to any conclusions, however, remember that most civilian deaths in war are intentional, and therefore fall into the "genocide and tyranny" category. Many others are the result of starvation.)
My estimate for the Communist share of the century's unpleasantness:
Genocide & Tyranny: 44M
(incl. intentional famine)
Man-made Famine: 37M
(excl. intentional famine)
Communist-inspired War (for example the Russian Civil War, Vietnam, Korea, etc.)
Military: 5M
Civilian: 6M
NOTE: With these numbers, I'm tallying every combat death and accidental civilian death in the war, without differentiating who died, who did it or who started it. According to whichever theory of Just War you are working from, the Communists may be entirely blameless, or entirely to blame, for these 11M dead.
TOTAL: 92M deaths by Communism.
RESIDUE: 96M deaths by non-Communism.
Abortions
Findings
Global Incidence
Approximately 46 million abortions were performed worldwide in 1995 (Table 1). Of these, about 26 million were legal and 20 million illegal.‡ The abortion rate worldwide was about 35 per 1,000 women aged 15–44. Of all pregnancies (excluding miscarriages and stillbirths), 26% were terminated by abortion.§
Table 1. Estimated number of induced abortions, by legal status, percentage of all abortions that are illegal, abortion rate and abortion ratio, all according to region and subregion, 1995
Region and subregion No. of abortions (millions) % illegal Rate* Ratio†
Total Legal Illegal
Total 45.5 25.6 19.9 44 35 26
Developed regions 10.0 9.1 0.9 9 39 42
Excluding Eastern Europe 3.8 3.7 0.1 3 20 26
Developing regions 35.5 16.5 19.0 54 34 23
Excluding China 24.9 5.9 19.0 76 33 20
Africa 5.0 ‡ 5.0 99 33 15
Eastern Africa 1.9 ‡ 1.9 100 41 16
Middle Africa 0.6 ‡ 0.6 100 35 14
Northern Africa 0.6 ‡ 0.6 96 17 12
Southern Africa 0.2 ‡ 0.2 100 19 12
Western Africa 1.6 ‡ 1.6 100 37 15
Asia 26.8 16.9 9.9 37 33 25
Eastern Asia 12.5 12.5 ‡ § 36 34
South-central Asia 8.4 1.9 6.5 78 28 18
South-eastern Asia 4.7 1.9 2.8 60 40 28
Western Asia 1.2 0.7 0.5 42 32 20
Europe 7.7 6.8 0.9 12 48 48
Eastern Europe 6.2 5.4 0.8 13 90 65
Northern Europe 0.4 0.3 ‡ 8 18 23
Southern Europe 0.8 0.7 0.1 12 24 34
Western Europe 0.4 0.4 ‡ § 11 17
Latin America 4.2 0.2 4.0 95 37 27
Caribbean 0.4 0.2 0.2 47 50 35
Central America 0.9 ‡ 0.9 100 30 21
South America 3.0 ‡ 3.0 100 39 30
Northern America 1.5 1.5 ‡ § 22 26
Oceania 0.1 0.1 ‡ 22 21 20
*Abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44. †Abortions per 100 known pregnancies. (Known pregnancies are defined as abortions plus live births.) ‡Fewer than 50,000. §Less than 0.5%. Notes: Developed regions include Europe, Northern America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan; all others are considered developing. Regions are as defined by the United Nations (UN) (see Appendix). Numbers do not add to totals due to rounding. Sources: Populations--UN, The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Population, The 1996 Revision, New York: UN, 1997. Births--UN, World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision, Annex II & III, Demographic indicators by major area, region and country, New York: UN, 1996. Illegal abortions-- WHO, 1998, op. cit. (see reference 4). Legal abortions--see text.
Global Incidence
Approximately 46 million abortions were performed worldwide in 1995 (Table 1). Of these, about 26 million were legal and 20 million illegal.‡ The abortion rate worldwide was about 35 per 1,000 women aged 15–44. Of all pregnancies (excluding miscarriages and stillbirths), 26% were terminated by abortion.§
Table 1. Estimated number of induced abortions, by legal status, percentage of all abortions that are illegal, abortion rate and abortion ratio, all according to region and subregion, 1995
Region and subregion No. of abortions (millions) % illegal Rate* Ratio†
Total Legal Illegal
Total 45.5 25.6 19.9 44 35 26
Developed regions 10.0 9.1 0.9 9 39 42
Excluding Eastern Europe 3.8 3.7 0.1 3 20 26
Developing regions 35.5 16.5 19.0 54 34 23
Excluding China 24.9 5.9 19.0 76 33 20
Africa 5.0 ‡ 5.0 99 33 15
Eastern Africa 1.9 ‡ 1.9 100 41 16
Middle Africa 0.6 ‡ 0.6 100 35 14
Northern Africa 0.6 ‡ 0.6 96 17 12
Southern Africa 0.2 ‡ 0.2 100 19 12
Western Africa 1.6 ‡ 1.6 100 37 15
Asia 26.8 16.9 9.9 37 33 25
Eastern Asia 12.5 12.5 ‡ § 36 34
South-central Asia 8.4 1.9 6.5 78 28 18
South-eastern Asia 4.7 1.9 2.8 60 40 28
Western Asia 1.2 0.7 0.5 42 32 20
Europe 7.7 6.8 0.9 12 48 48
Eastern Europe 6.2 5.4 0.8 13 90 65
Northern Europe 0.4 0.3 ‡ 8 18 23
Southern Europe 0.8 0.7 0.1 12 24 34
Western Europe 0.4 0.4 ‡ § 11 17
Latin America 4.2 0.2 4.0 95 37 27
Caribbean 0.4 0.2 0.2 47 50 35
Central America 0.9 ‡ 0.9 100 30 21
South America 3.0 ‡ 3.0 100 39 30
Northern America 1.5 1.5 ‡ § 22 26
Oceania 0.1 0.1 ‡ 22 21 20
*Abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44. †Abortions per 100 known pregnancies. (Known pregnancies are defined as abortions plus live births.) ‡Fewer than 50,000. §Less than 0.5%. Notes: Developed regions include Europe, Northern America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan; all others are considered developing. Regions are as defined by the United Nations (UN) (see Appendix). Numbers do not add to totals due to rounding. Sources: Populations--UN, The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Population, The 1996 Revision, New York: UN, 1997. Births--UN, World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision, Annex II & III, Demographic indicators by major area, region and country, New York: UN, 1996. Illegal abortions-- WHO, 1998, op. cit. (see reference 4). Legal abortions--see text.
Image bank
I am hoping to collect a portfolio of images of females and males from the age of 0-100. I know this will be a long process but as I have said before this is going to be an ongoing project.
Monday
We are going to discuss our ideas on monday, I am at the stage where I have not much to show but have the ideas coming to back up my eventual outcome..
I have just started to take some photo's which are going to be the basis of my final idea. this will consist of web based video and stills, a book of the stills from the photo's and video and maybe some podcast's?
This is so I can reach a number of audiences, which will give the reading of the work different meanings. the content of the work will be based on the predictions of experts who say our life expectancy as males and females is much greater now than it has been for many years with developments in medicines and surgery. I however want to show that we will not reach this given age for a number of reasons, murder, suicide, war, illness etc..
I have just started to take some photo's which are going to be the basis of my final idea. this will consist of web based video and stills, a book of the stills from the photo's and video and maybe some podcast's?
This is so I can reach a number of audiences, which will give the reading of the work different meanings. the content of the work will be based on the predictions of experts who say our life expectancy as males and females is much greater now than it has been for many years with developments in medicines and surgery. I however want to show that we will not reach this given age for a number of reasons, murder, suicide, war, illness etc..
Blogger
I have just purchased the rough guide to blogging, I am hoping it will give some insight to how to promote the blog and get it seen and read by more people!
Technical problems
I am having real problems with dreamweaver, I have tried to save some changes and upload them to the web page, without success, I am going to speak to Gareth on Monday to see if he can help out?
Friday, October 19, 2007
hello tony!
i have an article for you to have! i'll give it to you on monday! also can you please send me a screen shot of your author list so i can pick some ppls emails to use!!!
thanks!
thanks!
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Homicide and Murder
Death by Murder
by Ben Best
CONTENTS: LINKS TO SECTIONS BY TOPIC
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
WORLD HOMICIDE RATES
HOMICIDE RATES IN THE UNITED STATES
HOMICIDE RATES IN CANADA
HOMICIDE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE UNITED STATES
GUNS AND HOMICIDE
CAPITAL PUNISHMENT AND HOMICIDE
CONCLUDING REMARKS
I. INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
A serious program of life-extension and cryonics would be amiss to neglect the dangers posed from death by murder. In other essays I have discussed the dangers of death due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, dementia, aging and accidents. If aging & disease are eliminated and the world is made much safer (and/or surgical repair is vastly improved) so as to reduce the danger of death by accident, the major causes of death will be suicide and homicide. I believe that no matter how advanced the technology, people will always have the means of killing other people -- and of killing themselves. In this essay I want to focus on murder (homicide), which is the tenth leading cause of death for males in the United States (much less common for females).
Gathering as much information as possible about the conditions under which murder can occur is a major step towards being able to take preventative action. A prudent step towards reducing one's chance of being murdered is to avoid being in the wrong place at the wrong time. So it therefore seems reasonable to begin by determining what some of the "wrong places" are.
Homicide rates are typically quoted as per 100,000 people per year. The rates I quote will be for VICTIMS unless I say otherwise. The 10-year average homicide rates (1987-1996) for Canada averaged 2.3 and for the United States averaged 8.8.
(return to contents)
II. WORLD HOMICIDE RATES
Homicide statistics for much of the world are hard to come by and often very unreliable. The most comprehensive list I could find was from Interpol for the mid-1970s (International Crime Statistics). (Interpol presently only releases crime statistics to police organizations.) The top 10 countries for murder were:
TEN WORST COUNTRIES FOR MURDER (MID-1970s)
COUNTRY
PER 100,000
(1) Lesotho 141
(2) Bahamas 23
(3) Guyana 22
(4) Lebanon 20
(5) Netherlands Antilles 12
(6) Iraq 12
(7) Sri Lanka 12
(8) Cyprus 11
(9) Trindad & Tobago 10
(10) Jamaica 10
There are more recent statistics, which include fewer countries than the Interpol statistics: Nationmaster.com Map & Graph of Murders (per capita)
The top 10 countries for homicide conviction in 2003 were:
TOP TEN COUNTRIES FOR HOMICIDE, 2003
COUNTRY
PER 100,000
(1) Colombia 63
(2) South Africa 51
(3) Jamaica 32
(4) Venezuela 32
(5) Russia 19
(6) Mexico 13
(7) Lithuania 10
(8) Estonia 10
(9) Latvia 10
(10) Belarus 9
Both of these sources of statistics give as least as much evidence for the difficulty of getting accurate homicide data as they do of homicide rates. Among the top ten countries in the Interpol list, only Jamaica appears on the "Nationmaster" list. Neither list includes Brazil, which THE ECONOMIST (19-June-1999) cited as having a murder rate of about 23, with the highest percentage (88%) of murders being committed by firearms in the world.
Even in 2002 the statistics gathering for world-wide homicide rates shows huge gaps. The 2002 WORLD REPORT ON VIOLENCE AND HEALTH published by the World Health Organization (WHO, Geneva) lists murder rates for 75 countries. Eight of the ten countries included in the 1970s Interpol list do not appear in the WHO list. Such huge countries as India, Pakistan and Indonesia are omitted -- as are all African countries. Jamaica appears in the list reporting a dubious 2 murders for 1991. Trinidad & Tobago are shown as having 11.4 murders per 100,000. I have extracted the ten worst countries for murder from the 75 listed by the WHO report:
TEN WORST COUNTRIES FOR MURDER (LATE-1990s)
COUNTRY
PER 100,000
(1) Columbia 84.4
(2) El Salvador 50.2
(3) Puerto Rico 41.8
(4) Brazil 32.5
(5) Albania 28.2
(6) Venezuela 25.0
(7) Russian Federation 18.0
(8) Ecuador 15.9
(9) Mexico 15.3
(10) Panama 14.4
I have extracted the ten safest countries for murder, based on reported homicide rates, from the 2002 report:
TEN SAFEST COUNTRIES FOR MURDER (LATE-1990s)
COUNTRY
PER MILLION
(1) Slovenia 0.7
(2) Austria 0.9
(3) Sweden 1.8
(4) Switzerland 2.3
(5) Israel 2.3
(6) Hong Kong 2.4
(7) Norway 2.5
(8) Ireland 2.8
(9) Finland 3.7
(10) Singapore 4.3
The figure for Israel is for 1997, which was before the rash of suicide bombings -- although Israel was probably not as safe even in 1997 as the number might indicate. Hong Kong is counted as a country -- it was a country in 1996, the year for which the statistic is reported. Northern Ireland is not included in the reported figure for Ireland.
An international chart summarizing world homicide and suicide rates is available from the World Health Organization, despite the fact that the data cannot be any better than the data-gathering capabilities of the various countries. A somewhat confusing distinction is made between the "South-East Asia Region", which includes India, Indonesia, North Korea and Thailand (among other countries) -- and the "Western Region", which includes South Korea, Laos, Viet Nam, China, Philippines, Australia and Fiji (among other countries).
Homicide & Suicide Rate by World Health Organization (WHO) Region
International murder rates for cities are difficult to obtain outside the developed world. According to some reports Bagota (Colombia), Karachi (Pakistan), Lagos (Nigeria), Dhaka (Bangladesh) and Port Moresby (Papua New Guinea) have some of the highest murder rates in the world, but there are no reliable statistics and Interpol refuses to make its statistics public. Caracas, Venezuela reputedly has a murder rate over 100 per 100,000.
A 1998 BBC News Report of a UK Home Office survey compared murder statistics for select cities in Europe and North America. Although most of the cities are larger than one million in population, Geneva has only a couple hundred thousand and both Amsterdam and Belfast are well under a million in population. Washington, DC at half-a-million is much smaller than Detroit (which has an equivalent murder rate), yet Detroit is excluded. The worst 20 cities for murder rate listed were:
SELECTED WORST CITIES
MURDER (LATE-1990s)
EUROPE AND USA
CITY
MURDERS
PER 100,000
(1) Washington, D.C., USA 69.3
(2) Philadelphia, USA 27.4
(3) Dallas, USA 24.8
(4) Los Angeles, USA 22.8
(5) Chicago, USA 20.5
(6) Phoenix, USA 19.1
(7) Moscow, Russia 18.1
(8) Houston, USA 18.0
(9) New York City, USA 16.8
(10) Helsinki, Finland 12.5
(11) Lisbon, Portugal 9.7
(12) San Diego, USA 8.0
(13) Amsterdam, Netherlands 7.7
(14) Belfast, N.Ireland, UK 4.4
(15) Geneva, Switzerland 4.2
(16) Copenhagen, Denmark 4.0
(17) Berlin, Germany 3.8
(18) Paris, France 3.3
(19) Stockholm, Sweden 3.0
(20) Prague, Czechoslovakia 2.9
(return to contents)
III. HOMICIDE RATES IN THE UNITED STATES
For the United States I have extracted the most & least dangerous States based on FBI Uniform Crime Reports for the year 2003:
TEN WORST STATES FOR MURDER, 2003
STATE
PER 100,000
(1) Louisiana 13.0
(2) Maryland 9.5
(3) Mississippi 9.3
(4) Nevada 8.8
(5) Arizona 7.9
(6) Georgia 7.6
(7) South Carolina 7.2
(8) California 6.8
(9) Tennessee 6.8
(10) Alabama 6.6
TEN SAFEST STATES FOR MURDER, 2003
STATE
PER 100,000
(1) Maine 1.2
(2) South Dakota 1.3
(3) New Hampshire 1.4
(4) Iowa 1.6
(5) Hawaii 1.7
(6) Idaho 1.8
(7) North Dakota 1.9
(8) Oregon 1.9
(9) Massachusetts 2.2
(10) Rhode Island 2.3
States (and Puerto Rico) can be grouped by region with summary data for 2002:
HOMICIDE RATE BY REGION, 2002
REGION
PER 100,000
(1) Puerto Rico 20.1
(2) East South Central 6.8
(3) West South Central 6.8
(4) South Atlantic 6.7
(5) East North Central 5.8
(6) Pacific 5.8
(7) Mountain 5.3
(8) Middle Atlantic 4.7
(9) West North Central 3.2
(10) New England 2.4
The regions above can be defined as:
East South Central:Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee
West South Central:Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas
South Atlantic:Delaware, DC, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia
East North Central:Illinios, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin
Pacific:Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington
Mountain:Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Middle Atlantic:New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
West North Central:Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota
New England:Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont
A Scientific American article (June 1999) accounts for the high murder rates in the South on the grounds of a "culture of honor". A white man living in a small county in the South is four times more likely to kill than one living in a small county in the Midwest. Southerners showed higher levels of cortisol and testosterone in response to an insult. Murder rates due to arguments are higher in the South and Southwest, but murder rates associated with felony (robbery or burglary) are lower.
For the United States I have also extracted the most & least dangerous large cities (having a population over 500,000) as reported by SafeStreetsDC.com for the year 2002:
TEN WORST LARGE CITIES FOR MURDER, 2002
CITY
PER 100,000
(1) Washington, DC 45.8
(2) Detroit 42.0
(3) Baltimore 38.3
(4) Memphis 24.7
(5) Chicago 22.2
(6) Philadelphia 19.0
(7) Columbus 18.1
(8) Milwaukee 18.0
(9) Los Angeles 17.5
(10) Dallas 15.8
TEN SAFEST LARGE CITIES FOR MURDER, 2002
CITY
PER 100,000
(1) Honolulu 2.0
(2) El Paso 2.4
(3) San Jose 3.1
(4) Austin 3.7
(5) San Diego 3.8
(6) Portland 3.9
(7) Seattle 4.5
(8) New York 7.3
(9) San Francisco 7.3
(10) Oklahoma City 8.5
The chance of being murdered in Washington,DC in 1990 was 3 times greater than the chance of an American soldier being killed in the Gulf War. The average American city with a population of 250,000 or greater has a murder rate of about 20, whereas cities in the 100,000 to 250,000 range have a rate of about 12. About as many Americans were killed (over 54,000) in New York City between 1962 and 2002 as died in the Vietnam War, but the murder rate in 2002 was only about a quarter what it was in 1990, when there were a record 2,245 murders. Mayor Giuliani is credited with the transformation.
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IV. HOMICIDE RATES IN CANADA
Homicide statistics for Canada can be found at the Statistics Canada website. The nation-wide average for 2003 was 1.73 homicides per 100,000. Ranking all of the Provinces and Territories by murder rate for the year 2003 results in the following table:
PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES RANKED BY HOMICIDE RATE, 2003
PROVINCE/TERRITORY
PER 100,000
(1) Nunavut 10.21
(2) Northwest Territories 9.55
(3) Saskatchewan 4.12
(4) Manitoba 3.70
(5) Yukon 3.22
(6) British Columbia 2.24
(7) Alberta 2.00
(8) Ontario 1.45
(9) Quebec 1.34
(10) New Brunswick 1.07
(11) Newfoundland 0.96
(12) Nova Scotia 0.85
(13) Prince Edward Island 0.73
The 1990 homicide statistics for the murder rate for large Canadian cities:
LARGE CANADIAN CITIES BY HOMICIDE RATE, 1990
CITY
PER 100,000
(1) Regina 4.72
(2) Saskatoon 4.39
(3) Sudbury 4.00
(4) Edmonton 3.50
(5) Vancouver 3.45
(6) Montreal 3.40
(7) Winnipeg 3.05
(8) Calgary 2.60
(9) Toronto 1.80
(10) Hamilton 1.70
(11) Halifax 1.25
(12) St. John's 0.00
There were no murders in St. John's,Newfoundland in 1989 or 1990.
Overall, murder rates have declined between 1991 and 1996 in both the US (9.8 to 7.4) and Canada (2.7 to 2.1). Statistics Canada reports that murder rates continued to decline to a 1999 figure of 1.76, the lowest since 1967 (which was 1.66). Canadian gang-related homicides (drugs & revenge), however, doubled yearly from 1996 to 1999. Although aboriginal people represent only 3% of the Canadian population, aboriginals account for 20% of those accused of homicide and for one-sixth of all homicide victims.
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V. HOMICIDE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE UNITED STATES
I find that statistics about homicide in the United States are the most readily available, so the rest of my essay will rely on American statistics, which often contain information regarding race. The richest source of homicide statistics is the US Department of Justice ( www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/overview.htm). (Results of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center are excluded from these statistics.)
In the 1976-1997 period, the average age of victims fell from 35 to 31 and the average age of murderers fell from 31 to 27. 16% of homicides involved multiple murderers, whereas 4% of homicides involved multiple victims in 1997.
The most commonly cited reason for homicide is argument (including arguments about money & property under the influence of alcohol or narcotics). One third of all homicides in 1997 were triggered by arguments. Felony (rape, theft, narcotics, etc. ) accounted for a fifth of homicides and gang killings accounted for one twentieth. About a third were of unknown motive and the other 10% were miscellaneous motives.
Between 1976 and 1994 the average age of murderers fell from 30.3 to 26.4 and the average age of victims fell from 35.2 to 31.3. By 2004 murderers were at least twice as likely to be in the 18-24 age group as in the 14-17 or 25-34 age group (the next highest age groups). By 2004 victims were about three times as likely to be in the 18-24 age group as in the 14-17 or 35-49 age group and about twice as likely to be in the 25-34 age group. The murder rates are lowest for the above 50 and below 14 age groups and the victimization rates for those age groups (although much higher than the murder rates) are the lowest for any age groups.
For the 1976-2004 period men committed 93.3% of felony murders and 85.5% of murders due to argument. Men committed 91.2% of gun homicides, 79.1% of arson homicides and 63.3% of poison homicides. The relationship of killers to murder victims classified by gender can be summarized as follows (rounding errors give a total of 99.9%):
GENDER RELATIONSHIP OF KILLERS AND VICTIMS
RELATIONSHIP
PERCENT
Male kills male 65.2%
Male kills female 22.6%
Female kills male 9.7%
Female kills female 2.4%
Total 99.9%
In 2004 about a third of women were killed by intimates, whereas only about 3% of men were killed by intimates. For the 1990-2004 period two-thirds of spouse and ex-spouse victims were killed by guns. Detailed statistics for the 1976-2004 period is summarized in the following table (rounding errors give a total of 100.1%):
RELATIONSHIP OF MURDERER TO VICTIM
MURDERER
MALE FEMALE
Intimate 5.3% 30.1%
Family 6.7% 11.7%
Acquaintance 35.5% 21.8%
Stranger 15.5% 8.8%
Undetermined 37.1% 27.7%
Total 100.1% 100.1%
Intimate:Spouse or boyfriend/girlfriend
Family:Non-spousal family member,
For murders where the murderers and victims were classifed as black or white, the breakdown of murderers and victims for 2004 can be summarized by race & gender:
MURDERERS AND VICTIMS
BY RACE AND GENDER
IDENTITY
MURDERERS VICTIMS
Black male 47.9% 42.2%
White male 42.9% 37.3%
White female 5.4% 13.3%
Black female 4.1% 7.2%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
The relationship of killers to murder victims classified by race for 2004 can be summarized as follows:
RACE RELATIONSHIP
KILLERS/VICTIMS
RELATIONSHIP
PERCENT
White kills white 46.1%
Black kills black 40.7%
Black kills white 8.5%
White kills black 3.5%
Other kills other 0.6%
Other kills white 0.4%
White kills other 0.2%
Black kills other 0.1%
Other kills black 0.0%
Total 100.0%
(According to the US Census Bureau the US population in 2004 was 80.4% white and 12.8% black.)
White (usually European) immigrants to the US are 2.1 times as likely to be homicide victims as native whites, whereas black immigrants are only 60% as likely to be homicide victims as native blacks ( www.ph.ucla.edu/sph/pr/wr038.html). I speculate that white immigrants are naive of the dangers of the new country, whereas black immigrants would not be associated with gangs or ghetto-culture.
The 15-24 year age group had the highest homicide victimization rate, and were less likely to be murdered while under the influence of alcohol than those between the ages of 25-54. August was the most popular month to be murdered, followed by March and October. Saturday was the most popular day-of-the-week to be murdered, followed by Friday. Murder rates are higher in the afternoon than in the morning, but are highest at night -- climbing steadily from 6 pm, peaking at 11 pm and declining thereafter.
During the 1980s, homicide was the leading cause of occupational death for American women and the third leading cause of occupational death for American men (www.cdc.gov/niosh/homicide.html). During the 1980s the average annual occupational homicide rate was 0.7 (out of 100,000, as usual). Occupations with the highest homicide rates were:
HOMICIDE RATES FOR OCCUPATIONS, 1980s
OCCUPATION
PER 100,000
Taxicab driver/chauffer 15.1
Law enforcement officer 9.3
Hotel clerk 5.1
Gas station worker 4.5
Security guard 3.6
Stock handler/buyer 3.1
Store owner/manager 2.8
Bartender 2.1
The most dangerous workplaces were:
HOMICIDE RATES FOR WORKPLACES, 1980s
WORKPLACE
PER 100,000
Taxicabs 26.9
Liquor stores 8.0
Gas stations 5.6
Detective/protective services 5.0
Justice/public order establishments 3.4
Grocery stores 3.2
Jewelry stores 3.2
Hotels/motels 1.5
Eating/drinking places 1.5
In the 1997-2000 period 80.1% of work-related homicides were due to shooting, 9.0% due to stabbing and 6.2% due to hitting, kicking or beating.
Homicide-suicides involve cases where a perpetrator commits one or more homicides before committing suicide. Peculiarly, the rate for homicide-suicide is between 0.2 to 0.3 for most countries, despite large differences in homicide rates in the different countries [AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY 155(3):390-396 (1998)].
Within the United States, states with a high unemployment rate have a high homicide rate, but there is a negative correlation between suicide rate and unemployment. Suicide is 3 times more highly correlated with divorce than is being a murder victim [AMERICAN JOURNAL OF DRUG & ALCOHOL ABUSE 21(1):147-150 (1995)].
In a Memphis, Tennessee study, 85% of murderers and 75% of murder victims were intoxicated during the murder. A review of 331 American medical examiner (coroner) studies published between 1975 and 1995 found that victims tested positive for alcohol in 29% of suicides, 38.5% of unintentional injury deaths, 39.7% of motor vehicle deaths and 47.1% of homicides. Half of those murdered by drowning were intoxicated at the time, but only 16% of those murdered by strangling or suffocation were intoxicated [ANNALS OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE 33(6):659-668 (1999)]. This could mean that it pays to be able to put up a fight! However, the vast majority of murder victims were killed by gunshot or stabbing/cutting of which 30.6% and 43.0% of the victims were intoxicated, respectively. The higher rate of intoxication for stabbings may indicate a greater impulsiveness for crimes committed with this kind of weapon (grabbing for a handy knife or pair of scissors in a moment of drunken rage).
Resisting an assailant may not be futile and dangerous. A very large survey by the US Justice Department of survivors (!) of violent crimes found that 73% resisted by trying to attack/capture the offender, by running-away/hiding or by trying to persuade/appease. Of those who resisted, 63% felt their resistance was useful and 7% said their resistance was harmful. It would be valuable to know the full statistics -- ie, of all those who were attacked, not just the survivors, but technical difficulties...
The 28-July-2000 (Vol.289,No.5479) issue of SCIENCE had a special coverage of violence. One article (p.575-579) noted that animals & humans with lower brain serotonin tend to be more impulsive & aggressive -- whereas the opposite was true for those with higher brain serotonin. This suggests Prozac as a more selective anti-violence drug than the sedatives & antipsychotic drugs usually used for violent mental patients. Higher vasopressin in the hypothalamus also correlated with increased antisocial aggression.
Another article (p.580-581) noted that "Hitting, Biting and Kicking" behavior was observed in nearly half of 2-year-olds, but declined somewhat steadily to the age of eleven (the last point graphed). Personality trait "risk factors" for violence (which twin studies indicate are genetic) include impulsivity, low IQ and a temperament predisposed toward anger, vindictiveness and blaming others. Physical correlates include lower skin conductance and slower brainwaves -- indicative of a low autonomic arousal (ie, the person is less anxious & inhibited and requires more extreme behavior to experience stimulation).
A graph on p.582 shows that since 1988 the 18-24 year age-group has accounted for the most murders in the US, followed by the 14-17 year age-group and then by the 25-34 year age-group. (The fact that the youngest age-group is a 3-year span, the middle age-group is a 7-year span and the oldest age-group is a 10-year span probably results in an understatement of the homicidal tendencies of the youngest ages.) The same graph shows homicide peaking in 1980, falling until 1985, peaking higher in 1992 and then falling again. The 1992 peak has been blamed on crack cocaine. One explanation for the declines is increased incarceration rates, which did not change in the 1925-1970 period, but has quadrupled since 1970. A study of dangerous neighborhoods in St.Louis & Chicago showed that every 10% increase in number of people incarcerated reduced the number of homicides 15-20%. Another researcher, however, estimated that 50% of the drop in crime is due to the 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision which allowed for the abortion of many unwanted children who could have become killers.
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VI. GUNS AND HOMICIDE
Two thirds of all 1992 US murders were accomplished with firearms. Handguns were used in about half of all murders. Sharp instruments were used in 17% of murders and blunt instruments in about 6%.
Gun control laws are stiffer in Canada, and many claim this accounts for the murder rate being lower in Canada than in the United States. 65% of US homicides were committed with firearms, versus 32% in Canada. However, a large American study indicated that liberalized laws for carrying concealed weapons reduced murder rates in the US by 8.5%. US homicide rates in the year 1900 were an estimated 1 per 100,000 -- at a time when anyone of any age could buy a gun. Statistics-gathering may have been less thorough at that time -- and few people had the money or interest to buy guns. But American gun supply (including handguns) doubled from the 1973-1992 period, during which homicide rates remained unchanged (WALL STREET JOURNAL, 4-Aug-2000, p.A10).
Politicians in Massachusetts have cited the State's tough gun control laws as the reason for its low murder rates. However, the adjacent states of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont have some of the least stringent gun control laws in the US, yet the first two have lower murder rates than Massachusetts and the murder rates in Vermont are comparable to those in Massachusetts. Murder rates in Boston increased 50% in 2004 over the previous year, while murder rates in Los Angeles, Miami, Washington and many other major cites saw murder rates decline.
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VII. CAPITAL PUNISHMENT AND HOMICIDE
About half of the countries of the world still have the death penalty. On average, two countries per year have abolished the death penalty since 1976, the year it was abolished in Canada. Since then the Canadian murder rate has dropped from about 3 to about 2, undermining the argument that capital punishment is a deterrent. China, Iran and Nigeria accounted for 87% of reported executions in 1994, although there is debate about the number of executions in Iraq. An estimated 23 people proven innocent were wrongly executed in the United States between 1900 and 1995 (Amnesty International).
Plot of Executions and Murders
From the gangland era of the 1930s to 1963 there was a gradual decline in both murders & executions in the United States. In 1963 the US Supreme Court imposed rules on confessions & searches that accompanied a popular sentiment increasingly opposed to capital punishment -- and in 1972 struck down capital punishment laws as being "arbitrary and capricious". There were no executions in the United States between 1967 and 1977. Murder rates soared to levels not seen since the 1930s and remained at that level until the late 1970s when sentiment changed and execution began to be increasingly reinstated. As executions rose, the murder rate declined through the 1990s. In 2002 the Supreme Court ruled that the mentally retarded cannot be executed and that only juries can impose the death penalty -- two rulings that affected nearly a quarter of death-row inmates. (See The Death Penalty in the U.S. for a more detailed history.)
Opponents of capital punishment generally hold that capital punishment is inhumane and has a "brutalizing effect" on society. They will often also say that capital punishment is applied in a haphazard manner -- if not systematically racist. They deny that anyone commits a crime having a concern about the consequences of getting caught. And many assert that the execution of even one wrongly convicted person is too high a price to pay, while others assert that execution is too high a price to pay whether the convicted person is innocent or not.
Abolitionists have pointed to the fact that states with the highest execution rates have the highest murder rates, whereas proponents have suggested that high murder rates had forced the adoption of execution. On March 1, 1847 the State of Michigan became the first English-speaking territory in the world to abolish the death penalty. It may be no accident that Detroit rivals Washington, DC as the city with the highest murder rate among American cities having a population over half-a-million. Texas, the state with the highest number of executions, dropped from being the state with the second highest murder rate to the 15th in the 1990s after beginning lethal injection in 1982. Thousands of murders are committed yearly by murderers released from prison -- a problem which could be eliminated by ensuring that convicted murderers are never released from prison.
In the early 1960s the vast majority of murder victims were acquainted with the murderer, but by the year 2000 nearly half of murder victims were strangers. This may undermine the argument that murders are impulsive crimes of passion wherein the threat of execution is not a deterrent. Murderers who kill their victim during a pre-meditated rape or robbery may well have enough familiarity with the criminal justice system to realize that the chance of escaping by killing a victim-witness may be worth the risk if execution upon capture is unlikely. Persons already habituated to prison life may not regard possible return to prison as much of a deterrent. If this argument is true, then humanitarian abolitionists must reconcile the 100,000 lives of American homicide victims who might have survived the 1963-1997 period against the lives of murderers who were not executed.
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VIII. CONCLUDING REMARKS
A good piece of advice would seem to be, "Don't hang-around with (or marry-into) a bad crowd." That includes occupations that require associations with dangerous people, such as taxi-driving, liquor store work and police work, but it also includes country & city of residence. Other adages would be, "Don't be the guardian of valuables, even if those valuables are your own" and "stay sober".
Yet another adage is, "Don't make enemies." I believe this last adage will be the ultimate challenge. In the long run, if human lifespans begin to span centuries, this would be the most crucial, since I believe that random, stupid, felonious and impulsive violence would decline sharply. The most pre-meditated, technically sophisticated and well-planned murders would be the ones which would succeed. Such murders would likely not be for material gain, but to exterminate an enemy for whom there is bitter animosity. And in the future, ethnic or racial motives are likely to become less common, so the attack would be very PERSONAL.
Assassination attempts against heads-of-state has a long history. More recently attacks using anthrax-laced letters have targeted a wider range of political figures. Celebrities of all kinds face an increasing risk of murder or attack by obscessed persons. John Lennon's 1980 shooting marked the advent of the recent phenomenon of celebrity stalking. A stalker wanting to slit Madonna's throat scaled the walls of her estate and Steven Spielberg was targeted by a man who wanted to rape him. Movie stars now employ professionals to review their mail for evidence of stalkers. So public prominence is definitely associated with increased risk.
For details about the risk of death from all causes other the murder -- see my essay Causes of Death .
For a history of mafia killers and government assassination attempts see my book Schemers in the Web.
by Ben Best
CONTENTS: LINKS TO SECTIONS BY TOPIC
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
WORLD HOMICIDE RATES
HOMICIDE RATES IN THE UNITED STATES
HOMICIDE RATES IN CANADA
HOMICIDE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE UNITED STATES
GUNS AND HOMICIDE
CAPITAL PUNISHMENT AND HOMICIDE
CONCLUDING REMARKS
I. INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
A serious program of life-extension and cryonics would be amiss to neglect the dangers posed from death by murder. In other essays I have discussed the dangers of death due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, dementia, aging and accidents. If aging & disease are eliminated and the world is made much safer (and/or surgical repair is vastly improved) so as to reduce the danger of death by accident, the major causes of death will be suicide and homicide. I believe that no matter how advanced the technology, people will always have the means of killing other people -- and of killing themselves. In this essay I want to focus on murder (homicide), which is the tenth leading cause of death for males in the United States (much less common for females).
Gathering as much information as possible about the conditions under which murder can occur is a major step towards being able to take preventative action. A prudent step towards reducing one's chance of being murdered is to avoid being in the wrong place at the wrong time. So it therefore seems reasonable to begin by determining what some of the "wrong places" are.
Homicide rates are typically quoted as per 100,000 people per year. The rates I quote will be for VICTIMS unless I say otherwise. The 10-year average homicide rates (1987-1996) for Canada averaged 2.3 and for the United States averaged 8.8.
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II. WORLD HOMICIDE RATES
Homicide statistics for much of the world are hard to come by and often very unreliable. The most comprehensive list I could find was from Interpol for the mid-1970s (International Crime Statistics). (Interpol presently only releases crime statistics to police organizations.) The top 10 countries for murder were:
TEN WORST COUNTRIES FOR MURDER (MID-1970s)
COUNTRY
PER 100,000
(1) Lesotho 141
(2) Bahamas 23
(3) Guyana 22
(4) Lebanon 20
(5) Netherlands Antilles 12
(6) Iraq 12
(7) Sri Lanka 12
(8) Cyprus 11
(9) Trindad & Tobago 10
(10) Jamaica 10
There are more recent statistics, which include fewer countries than the Interpol statistics: Nationmaster.com Map & Graph of Murders (per capita)
The top 10 countries for homicide conviction in 2003 were:
TOP TEN COUNTRIES FOR HOMICIDE, 2003
COUNTRY
PER 100,000
(1) Colombia 63
(2) South Africa 51
(3) Jamaica 32
(4) Venezuela 32
(5) Russia 19
(6) Mexico 13
(7) Lithuania 10
(8) Estonia 10
(9) Latvia 10
(10) Belarus 9
Both of these sources of statistics give as least as much evidence for the difficulty of getting accurate homicide data as they do of homicide rates. Among the top ten countries in the Interpol list, only Jamaica appears on the "Nationmaster" list. Neither list includes Brazil, which THE ECONOMIST (19-June-1999) cited as having a murder rate of about 23, with the highest percentage (88%) of murders being committed by firearms in the world.
Even in 2002 the statistics gathering for world-wide homicide rates shows huge gaps. The 2002 WORLD REPORT ON VIOLENCE AND HEALTH published by the World Health Organization (WHO, Geneva) lists murder rates for 75 countries. Eight of the ten countries included in the 1970s Interpol list do not appear in the WHO list. Such huge countries as India, Pakistan and Indonesia are omitted -- as are all African countries. Jamaica appears in the list reporting a dubious 2 murders for 1991. Trinidad & Tobago are shown as having 11.4 murders per 100,000. I have extracted the ten worst countries for murder from the 75 listed by the WHO report:
TEN WORST COUNTRIES FOR MURDER (LATE-1990s)
COUNTRY
PER 100,000
(1) Columbia 84.4
(2) El Salvador 50.2
(3) Puerto Rico 41.8
(4) Brazil 32.5
(5) Albania 28.2
(6) Venezuela 25.0
(7) Russian Federation 18.0
(8) Ecuador 15.9
(9) Mexico 15.3
(10) Panama 14.4
I have extracted the ten safest countries for murder, based on reported homicide rates, from the 2002 report:
TEN SAFEST COUNTRIES FOR MURDER (LATE-1990s)
COUNTRY
PER MILLION
(1) Slovenia 0.7
(2) Austria 0.9
(3) Sweden 1.8
(4) Switzerland 2.3
(5) Israel 2.3
(6) Hong Kong 2.4
(7) Norway 2.5
(8) Ireland 2.8
(9) Finland 3.7
(10) Singapore 4.3
The figure for Israel is for 1997, which was before the rash of suicide bombings -- although Israel was probably not as safe even in 1997 as the number might indicate. Hong Kong is counted as a country -- it was a country in 1996, the year for which the statistic is reported. Northern Ireland is not included in the reported figure for Ireland.
An international chart summarizing world homicide and suicide rates is available from the World Health Organization, despite the fact that the data cannot be any better than the data-gathering capabilities of the various countries. A somewhat confusing distinction is made between the "South-East Asia Region", which includes India, Indonesia, North Korea and Thailand (among other countries) -- and the "Western Region", which includes South Korea, Laos, Viet Nam, China, Philippines, Australia and Fiji (among other countries).
Homicide & Suicide Rate by World Health Organization (WHO) Region
International murder rates for cities are difficult to obtain outside the developed world. According to some reports Bagota (Colombia), Karachi (Pakistan), Lagos (Nigeria), Dhaka (Bangladesh) and Port Moresby (Papua New Guinea) have some of the highest murder rates in the world, but there are no reliable statistics and Interpol refuses to make its statistics public. Caracas, Venezuela reputedly has a murder rate over 100 per 100,000.
A 1998 BBC News Report of a UK Home Office survey compared murder statistics for select cities in Europe and North America. Although most of the cities are larger than one million in population, Geneva has only a couple hundred thousand and both Amsterdam and Belfast are well under a million in population. Washington, DC at half-a-million is much smaller than Detroit (which has an equivalent murder rate), yet Detroit is excluded. The worst 20 cities for murder rate listed were:
SELECTED WORST CITIES
MURDER (LATE-1990s)
EUROPE AND USA
CITY
MURDERS
PER 100,000
(1) Washington, D.C., USA 69.3
(2) Philadelphia, USA 27.4
(3) Dallas, USA 24.8
(4) Los Angeles, USA 22.8
(5) Chicago, USA 20.5
(6) Phoenix, USA 19.1
(7) Moscow, Russia 18.1
(8) Houston, USA 18.0
(9) New York City, USA 16.8
(10) Helsinki, Finland 12.5
(11) Lisbon, Portugal 9.7
(12) San Diego, USA 8.0
(13) Amsterdam, Netherlands 7.7
(14) Belfast, N.Ireland, UK 4.4
(15) Geneva, Switzerland 4.2
(16) Copenhagen, Denmark 4.0
(17) Berlin, Germany 3.8
(18) Paris, France 3.3
(19) Stockholm, Sweden 3.0
(20) Prague, Czechoslovakia 2.9
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III. HOMICIDE RATES IN THE UNITED STATES
For the United States I have extracted the most & least dangerous States based on FBI Uniform Crime Reports for the year 2003:
TEN WORST STATES FOR MURDER, 2003
STATE
PER 100,000
(1) Louisiana 13.0
(2) Maryland 9.5
(3) Mississippi 9.3
(4) Nevada 8.8
(5) Arizona 7.9
(6) Georgia 7.6
(7) South Carolina 7.2
(8) California 6.8
(9) Tennessee 6.8
(10) Alabama 6.6
TEN SAFEST STATES FOR MURDER, 2003
STATE
PER 100,000
(1) Maine 1.2
(2) South Dakota 1.3
(3) New Hampshire 1.4
(4) Iowa 1.6
(5) Hawaii 1.7
(6) Idaho 1.8
(7) North Dakota 1.9
(8) Oregon 1.9
(9) Massachusetts 2.2
(10) Rhode Island 2.3
States (and Puerto Rico) can be grouped by region with summary data for 2002:
HOMICIDE RATE BY REGION, 2002
REGION
PER 100,000
(1) Puerto Rico 20.1
(2) East South Central 6.8
(3) West South Central 6.8
(4) South Atlantic 6.7
(5) East North Central 5.8
(6) Pacific 5.8
(7) Mountain 5.3
(8) Middle Atlantic 4.7
(9) West North Central 3.2
(10) New England 2.4
The regions above can be defined as:
East South Central:Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee
West South Central:Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas
South Atlantic:Delaware, DC, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia
East North Central:Illinios, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin
Pacific:Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington
Mountain:Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Middle Atlantic:New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
West North Central:Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota
New England:Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont
A Scientific American article (June 1999) accounts for the high murder rates in the South on the grounds of a "culture of honor". A white man living in a small county in the South is four times more likely to kill than one living in a small county in the Midwest. Southerners showed higher levels of cortisol and testosterone in response to an insult. Murder rates due to arguments are higher in the South and Southwest, but murder rates associated with felony (robbery or burglary) are lower.
For the United States I have also extracted the most & least dangerous large cities (having a population over 500,000) as reported by SafeStreetsDC.com for the year 2002:
TEN WORST LARGE CITIES FOR MURDER, 2002
CITY
PER 100,000
(1) Washington, DC 45.8
(2) Detroit 42.0
(3) Baltimore 38.3
(4) Memphis 24.7
(5) Chicago 22.2
(6) Philadelphia 19.0
(7) Columbus 18.1
(8) Milwaukee 18.0
(9) Los Angeles 17.5
(10) Dallas 15.8
TEN SAFEST LARGE CITIES FOR MURDER, 2002
CITY
PER 100,000
(1) Honolulu 2.0
(2) El Paso 2.4
(3) San Jose 3.1
(4) Austin 3.7
(5) San Diego 3.8
(6) Portland 3.9
(7) Seattle 4.5
(8) New York 7.3
(9) San Francisco 7.3
(10) Oklahoma City 8.5
The chance of being murdered in Washington,DC in 1990 was 3 times greater than the chance of an American soldier being killed in the Gulf War. The average American city with a population of 250,000 or greater has a murder rate of about 20, whereas cities in the 100,000 to 250,000 range have a rate of about 12. About as many Americans were killed (over 54,000) in New York City between 1962 and 2002 as died in the Vietnam War, but the murder rate in 2002 was only about a quarter what it was in 1990, when there were a record 2,245 murders. Mayor Giuliani is credited with the transformation.
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IV. HOMICIDE RATES IN CANADA
Homicide statistics for Canada can be found at the Statistics Canada website. The nation-wide average for 2003 was 1.73 homicides per 100,000. Ranking all of the Provinces and Territories by murder rate for the year 2003 results in the following table:
PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES RANKED BY HOMICIDE RATE, 2003
PROVINCE/TERRITORY
PER 100,000
(1) Nunavut 10.21
(2) Northwest Territories 9.55
(3) Saskatchewan 4.12
(4) Manitoba 3.70
(5) Yukon 3.22
(6) British Columbia 2.24
(7) Alberta 2.00
(8) Ontario 1.45
(9) Quebec 1.34
(10) New Brunswick 1.07
(11) Newfoundland 0.96
(12) Nova Scotia 0.85
(13) Prince Edward Island 0.73
The 1990 homicide statistics for the murder rate for large Canadian cities:
LARGE CANADIAN CITIES BY HOMICIDE RATE, 1990
CITY
PER 100,000
(1) Regina 4.72
(2) Saskatoon 4.39
(3) Sudbury 4.00
(4) Edmonton 3.50
(5) Vancouver 3.45
(6) Montreal 3.40
(7) Winnipeg 3.05
(8) Calgary 2.60
(9) Toronto 1.80
(10) Hamilton 1.70
(11) Halifax 1.25
(12) St. John's 0.00
There were no murders in St. John's,Newfoundland in 1989 or 1990.
Overall, murder rates have declined between 1991 and 1996 in both the US (9.8 to 7.4) and Canada (2.7 to 2.1). Statistics Canada reports that murder rates continued to decline to a 1999 figure of 1.76, the lowest since 1967 (which was 1.66). Canadian gang-related homicides (drugs & revenge), however, doubled yearly from 1996 to 1999. Although aboriginal people represent only 3% of the Canadian population, aboriginals account for 20% of those accused of homicide and for one-sixth of all homicide victims.
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V. HOMICIDE CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE UNITED STATES
I find that statistics about homicide in the United States are the most readily available, so the rest of my essay will rely on American statistics, which often contain information regarding race. The richest source of homicide statistics is the US Department of Justice ( www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/overview.htm). (Results of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center are excluded from these statistics.)
In the 1976-1997 period, the average age of victims fell from 35 to 31 and the average age of murderers fell from 31 to 27. 16% of homicides involved multiple murderers, whereas 4% of homicides involved multiple victims in 1997.
The most commonly cited reason for homicide is argument (including arguments about money & property under the influence of alcohol or narcotics). One third of all homicides in 1997 were triggered by arguments. Felony (rape, theft, narcotics, etc. ) accounted for a fifth of homicides and gang killings accounted for one twentieth. About a third were of unknown motive and the other 10% were miscellaneous motives.
Between 1976 and 1994 the average age of murderers fell from 30.3 to 26.4 and the average age of victims fell from 35.2 to 31.3. By 2004 murderers were at least twice as likely to be in the 18-24 age group as in the 14-17 or 25-34 age group (the next highest age groups). By 2004 victims were about three times as likely to be in the 18-24 age group as in the 14-17 or 35-49 age group and about twice as likely to be in the 25-34 age group. The murder rates are lowest for the above 50 and below 14 age groups and the victimization rates for those age groups (although much higher than the murder rates) are the lowest for any age groups.
For the 1976-2004 period men committed 93.3% of felony murders and 85.5% of murders due to argument. Men committed 91.2% of gun homicides, 79.1% of arson homicides and 63.3% of poison homicides. The relationship of killers to murder victims classified by gender can be summarized as follows (rounding errors give a total of 99.9%):
GENDER RELATIONSHIP OF KILLERS AND VICTIMS
RELATIONSHIP
PERCENT
Male kills male 65.2%
Male kills female 22.6%
Female kills male 9.7%
Female kills female 2.4%
Total 99.9%
In 2004 about a third of women were killed by intimates, whereas only about 3% of men were killed by intimates. For the 1990-2004 period two-thirds of spouse and ex-spouse victims were killed by guns. Detailed statistics for the 1976-2004 period is summarized in the following table (rounding errors give a total of 100.1%):
RELATIONSHIP OF MURDERER TO VICTIM
MURDERER
MALE FEMALE
Intimate 5.3% 30.1%
Family 6.7% 11.7%
Acquaintance 35.5% 21.8%
Stranger 15.5% 8.8%
Undetermined 37.1% 27.7%
Total 100.1% 100.1%
Intimate:Spouse or boyfriend/girlfriend
Family:Non-spousal family member,
For murders where the murderers and victims were classifed as black or white, the breakdown of murderers and victims for 2004 can be summarized by race & gender:
MURDERERS AND VICTIMS
BY RACE AND GENDER
IDENTITY
MURDERERS VICTIMS
Black male 47.9% 42.2%
White male 42.9% 37.3%
White female 5.4% 13.3%
Black female 4.1% 7.2%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
The relationship of killers to murder victims classified by race for 2004 can be summarized as follows:
RACE RELATIONSHIP
KILLERS/VICTIMS
RELATIONSHIP
PERCENT
White kills white 46.1%
Black kills black 40.7%
Black kills white 8.5%
White kills black 3.5%
Other kills other 0.6%
Other kills white 0.4%
White kills other 0.2%
Black kills other 0.1%
Other kills black 0.0%
Total 100.0%
(According to the US Census Bureau the US population in 2004 was 80.4% white and 12.8% black.)
White (usually European) immigrants to the US are 2.1 times as likely to be homicide victims as native whites, whereas black immigrants are only 60% as likely to be homicide victims as native blacks ( www.ph.ucla.edu/sph/pr/wr038.html). I speculate that white immigrants are naive of the dangers of the new country, whereas black immigrants would not be associated with gangs or ghetto-culture.
The 15-24 year age group had the highest homicide victimization rate, and were less likely to be murdered while under the influence of alcohol than those between the ages of 25-54. August was the most popular month to be murdered, followed by March and October. Saturday was the most popular day-of-the-week to be murdered, followed by Friday. Murder rates are higher in the afternoon than in the morning, but are highest at night -- climbing steadily from 6 pm, peaking at 11 pm and declining thereafter.
During the 1980s, homicide was the leading cause of occupational death for American women and the third leading cause of occupational death for American men (www.cdc.gov/niosh/homicide.html). During the 1980s the average annual occupational homicide rate was 0.7 (out of 100,000, as usual). Occupations with the highest homicide rates were:
HOMICIDE RATES FOR OCCUPATIONS, 1980s
OCCUPATION
PER 100,000
Taxicab driver/chauffer 15.1
Law enforcement officer 9.3
Hotel clerk 5.1
Gas station worker 4.5
Security guard 3.6
Stock handler/buyer 3.1
Store owner/manager 2.8
Bartender 2.1
The most dangerous workplaces were:
HOMICIDE RATES FOR WORKPLACES, 1980s
WORKPLACE
PER 100,000
Taxicabs 26.9
Liquor stores 8.0
Gas stations 5.6
Detective/protective services 5.0
Justice/public order establishments 3.4
Grocery stores 3.2
Jewelry stores 3.2
Hotels/motels 1.5
Eating/drinking places 1.5
In the 1997-2000 period 80.1% of work-related homicides were due to shooting, 9.0% due to stabbing and 6.2% due to hitting, kicking or beating.
Homicide-suicides involve cases where a perpetrator commits one or more homicides before committing suicide. Peculiarly, the rate for homicide-suicide is between 0.2 to 0.3 for most countries, despite large differences in homicide rates in the different countries [AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY 155(3):390-396 (1998)].
Within the United States, states with a high unemployment rate have a high homicide rate, but there is a negative correlation between suicide rate and unemployment. Suicide is 3 times more highly correlated with divorce than is being a murder victim [AMERICAN JOURNAL OF DRUG & ALCOHOL ABUSE 21(1):147-150 (1995)].
In a Memphis, Tennessee study, 85% of murderers and 75% of murder victims were intoxicated during the murder. A review of 331 American medical examiner (coroner) studies published between 1975 and 1995 found that victims tested positive for alcohol in 29% of suicides, 38.5% of unintentional injury deaths, 39.7% of motor vehicle deaths and 47.1% of homicides. Half of those murdered by drowning were intoxicated at the time, but only 16% of those murdered by strangling or suffocation were intoxicated [ANNALS OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE 33(6):659-668 (1999)]. This could mean that it pays to be able to put up a fight! However, the vast majority of murder victims were killed by gunshot or stabbing/cutting of which 30.6% and 43.0% of the victims were intoxicated, respectively. The higher rate of intoxication for stabbings may indicate a greater impulsiveness for crimes committed with this kind of weapon (grabbing for a handy knife or pair of scissors in a moment of drunken rage).
Resisting an assailant may not be futile and dangerous. A very large survey by the US Justice Department of survivors (!) of violent crimes found that 73% resisted by trying to attack/capture the offender, by running-away/hiding or by trying to persuade/appease. Of those who resisted, 63% felt their resistance was useful and 7% said their resistance was harmful. It would be valuable to know the full statistics -- ie, of all those who were attacked, not just the survivors, but technical difficulties...
The 28-July-2000 (Vol.289,No.5479) issue of SCIENCE had a special coverage of violence. One article (p.575-579) noted that animals & humans with lower brain serotonin tend to be more impulsive & aggressive -- whereas the opposite was true for those with higher brain serotonin. This suggests Prozac as a more selective anti-violence drug than the sedatives & antipsychotic drugs usually used for violent mental patients. Higher vasopressin in the hypothalamus also correlated with increased antisocial aggression.
Another article (p.580-581) noted that "Hitting, Biting and Kicking" behavior was observed in nearly half of 2-year-olds, but declined somewhat steadily to the age of eleven (the last point graphed). Personality trait "risk factors" for violence (which twin studies indicate are genetic) include impulsivity, low IQ and a temperament predisposed toward anger, vindictiveness and blaming others. Physical correlates include lower skin conductance and slower brainwaves -- indicative of a low autonomic arousal (ie, the person is less anxious & inhibited and requires more extreme behavior to experience stimulation).
A graph on p.582 shows that since 1988 the 18-24 year age-group has accounted for the most murders in the US, followed by the 14-17 year age-group and then by the 25-34 year age-group. (The fact that the youngest age-group is a 3-year span, the middle age-group is a 7-year span and the oldest age-group is a 10-year span probably results in an understatement of the homicidal tendencies of the youngest ages.) The same graph shows homicide peaking in 1980, falling until 1985, peaking higher in 1992 and then falling again. The 1992 peak has been blamed on crack cocaine. One explanation for the declines is increased incarceration rates, which did not change in the 1925-1970 period, but has quadrupled since 1970. A study of dangerous neighborhoods in St.Louis & Chicago showed that every 10% increase in number of people incarcerated reduced the number of homicides 15-20%. Another researcher, however, estimated that 50% of the drop in crime is due to the 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision which allowed for the abortion of many unwanted children who could have become killers.
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VI. GUNS AND HOMICIDE
Two thirds of all 1992 US murders were accomplished with firearms. Handguns were used in about half of all murders. Sharp instruments were used in 17% of murders and blunt instruments in about 6%.
Gun control laws are stiffer in Canada, and many claim this accounts for the murder rate being lower in Canada than in the United States. 65% of US homicides were committed with firearms, versus 32% in Canada. However, a large American study indicated that liberalized laws for carrying concealed weapons reduced murder rates in the US by 8.5%. US homicide rates in the year 1900 were an estimated 1 per 100,000 -- at a time when anyone of any age could buy a gun. Statistics-gathering may have been less thorough at that time -- and few people had the money or interest to buy guns. But American gun supply (including handguns) doubled from the 1973-1992 period, during which homicide rates remained unchanged (WALL STREET JOURNAL, 4-Aug-2000, p.A10).
Politicians in Massachusetts have cited the State's tough gun control laws as the reason for its low murder rates. However, the adjacent states of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont have some of the least stringent gun control laws in the US, yet the first two have lower murder rates than Massachusetts and the murder rates in Vermont are comparable to those in Massachusetts. Murder rates in Boston increased 50% in 2004 over the previous year, while murder rates in Los Angeles, Miami, Washington and many other major cites saw murder rates decline.
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VII. CAPITAL PUNISHMENT AND HOMICIDE
About half of the countries of the world still have the death penalty. On average, two countries per year have abolished the death penalty since 1976, the year it was abolished in Canada. Since then the Canadian murder rate has dropped from about 3 to about 2, undermining the argument that capital punishment is a deterrent. China, Iran and Nigeria accounted for 87% of reported executions in 1994, although there is debate about the number of executions in Iraq. An estimated 23 people proven innocent were wrongly executed in the United States between 1900 and 1995 (Amnesty International).
Plot of Executions and Murders
From the gangland era of the 1930s to 1963 there was a gradual decline in both murders & executions in the United States. In 1963 the US Supreme Court imposed rules on confessions & searches that accompanied a popular sentiment increasingly opposed to capital punishment -- and in 1972 struck down capital punishment laws as being "arbitrary and capricious". There were no executions in the United States between 1967 and 1977. Murder rates soared to levels not seen since the 1930s and remained at that level until the late 1970s when sentiment changed and execution began to be increasingly reinstated. As executions rose, the murder rate declined through the 1990s. In 2002 the Supreme Court ruled that the mentally retarded cannot be executed and that only juries can impose the death penalty -- two rulings that affected nearly a quarter of death-row inmates. (See The Death Penalty in the U.S. for a more detailed history.)
Opponents of capital punishment generally hold that capital punishment is inhumane and has a "brutalizing effect" on society. They will often also say that capital punishment is applied in a haphazard manner -- if not systematically racist. They deny that anyone commits a crime having a concern about the consequences of getting caught. And many assert that the execution of even one wrongly convicted person is too high a price to pay, while others assert that execution is too high a price to pay whether the convicted person is innocent or not.
Abolitionists have pointed to the fact that states with the highest execution rates have the highest murder rates, whereas proponents have suggested that high murder rates had forced the adoption of execution. On March 1, 1847 the State of Michigan became the first English-speaking territory in the world to abolish the death penalty. It may be no accident that Detroit rivals Washington, DC as the city with the highest murder rate among American cities having a population over half-a-million. Texas, the state with the highest number of executions, dropped from being the state with the second highest murder rate to the 15th in the 1990s after beginning lethal injection in 1982. Thousands of murders are committed yearly by murderers released from prison -- a problem which could be eliminated by ensuring that convicted murderers are never released from prison.
In the early 1960s the vast majority of murder victims were acquainted with the murderer, but by the year 2000 nearly half of murder victims were strangers. This may undermine the argument that murders are impulsive crimes of passion wherein the threat of execution is not a deterrent. Murderers who kill their victim during a pre-meditated rape or robbery may well have enough familiarity with the criminal justice system to realize that the chance of escaping by killing a victim-witness may be worth the risk if execution upon capture is unlikely. Persons already habituated to prison life may not regard possible return to prison as much of a deterrent. If this argument is true, then humanitarian abolitionists must reconcile the 100,000 lives of American homicide victims who might have survived the 1963-1997 period against the lives of murderers who were not executed.
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VIII. CONCLUDING REMARKS
A good piece of advice would seem to be, "Don't hang-around with (or marry-into) a bad crowd." That includes occupations that require associations with dangerous people, such as taxi-driving, liquor store work and police work, but it also includes country & city of residence. Other adages would be, "Don't be the guardian of valuables, even if those valuables are your own" and "stay sober".
Yet another adage is, "Don't make enemies." I believe this last adage will be the ultimate challenge. In the long run, if human lifespans begin to span centuries, this would be the most crucial, since I believe that random, stupid, felonious and impulsive violence would decline sharply. The most pre-meditated, technically sophisticated and well-planned murders would be the ones which would succeed. Such murders would likely not be for material gain, but to exterminate an enemy for whom there is bitter animosity. And in the future, ethnic or racial motives are likely to become less common, so the attack would be very PERSONAL.
Assassination attempts against heads-of-state has a long history. More recently attacks using anthrax-laced letters have targeted a wider range of political figures. Celebrities of all kinds face an increasing risk of murder or attack by obscessed persons. John Lennon's 1980 shooting marked the advent of the recent phenomenon of celebrity stalking. A stalker wanting to slit Madonna's throat scaled the walls of her estate and Steven Spielberg was targeted by a man who wanted to rape him. Movie stars now employ professionals to review their mail for evidence of stalkers. So public prominence is definitely associated with increased risk.
For details about the risk of death from all causes other the murder -- see my essay Causes of Death .
For a history of mafia killers and government assassination attempts see my book Schemers in the Web.
Suicide rates across the world
The World Health Organization (WHO) compiles and disseminates data on mortality and morbidity reported by its Member States, according to one of its mandates. Since the WHO's inception in 1948, the number of Member States has grown continually and so has the WHO mortality data bank. From 11 countries reporting data on mortality in 1950, the number of countries involved increased to 74 in the year 1985. More than 100 Member States reported on mortality at some point in time.
Data from developed countries (mostly in the North of Europe and of America, and a few countries of the Western Pacific Region) are received on a mostly regular basis. Most developing countries (in Latin America, Asia and in the Eastern Mediterranean Region) report on an irregular basis; very few countries in Africa regularly report on mortality to WHO.
Deaths associated with suicide are an integral part of the WHO mortality data bank. Throughout consecutive editions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-6 to ICD-10), the category name and code of suicide have remained relatively stable. Suicide data are reported in absolute numbers along with the mid-year population of a country. The suicide rates are usually represented by country, year, sex, and age group. The most recent data available to the WHO can be accessed through its web site (www.who.int).
The official figures made available to WHO by its Member States are based on death certificates signed by legally authorized personnel, usually doctors and, to a lesser extent, police officers. Generally speaking, these professionals do not misrepresent the information. However, suicide may be hidden and underreported for several reasons, e.g. as a result of prevailing social or religious attitudes. In some places, it is believed that suicide is underreported by a percentage between 20% and 100%. This underlines the importance of bringing about corrections and improvement on a world wide basis.
In contrast to data on completed suicide, no country in the world reports to WHO official statistics on attempted suicide (and most probably countries do not collect them), which makes it impossible to relate national trends of suicide to national trends of attempted suicide. In the absence of national data, one is forced to rely on local studies, which vary considerably, for instance in terms of the operational definition of attempted suicide. The WHO/EURO Multicentre Study on Suicidal Behaviour (1) constitutes a major step forward in this area.
Top
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
References
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
According to calculations based on data reported to WHO by its Member States, in 1998 suicide represented 1.8% of the global burden of disease and it is expected to increase to 2.4% by the year 2020. Suicide is among the 10 leading causes of death for all ages in most of the countries for which information is available. In some countries, it is among the top three causes of death for people aged 15-34 years.
In the year 2020, approximately 1.53 million people will die from suicide based on current trends and according to WHO estimates. Ten to 20 times more people will attempt suicide worldwide (2). This represents on average one death every 20 seconds and one attempt every 1-2 seconds.
The highest suicide rates for both men and women are found in Europe, more particularly in Eastern Europe, in a group of countries that share similar historical and sociocultural characteristics, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and, to a lesser extent, Finland, Hungary and the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, some similarly high rates are found in countries that are quite distinct in relation to these characteristics, such as Sri Lanka and Cuba.
According to the WHO regional distribution, the lowest rates as a whole are found in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, which comprises mostly countries that follow Islamic traditions; this is also true of some Central Asian republics that had formerly been integrated into the Soviet Union. Curiously enough, when the data are separated by WHO region, the highest rates in each region, with the exception of Europe, are found in island countries, such as Cuba, Japan, Mauritius and Sri Lanka.
In Figure 1, global suicide rates (per 100,000 population) have been calculated starting from 1950. Deaths reported by countries in each year were averaged and projected in relation to the global population over 5 years of age at each respective year. An increase of approximately 49% for suicide rates in males and 33% for suicide rates in females can be observed between 1950 and 1995.
Figure 1
Global suicide rates since 1950 and projected trends until 2020
The increase in these global suicide rates must be interpreted with caution. On the one hand, it might reflect the fact that since the end of the USSR (which had an overall rate below the average), some of its former republics (particularly those with the highest rates in the world) started to report individually, thus inflating the global rate. On the other hand, figures for 1950 were based on 11 countries only, and this gradually increased up to 1995, when the estimates were based on 62 countries that reported on suicide. These 62 countries as a whole probably have higher rates, are more concerned with them and have a higher tendency to report on suicide mortality than countries where suicide is not perceived as a major public health problem.
Although it is customary in the suicidology literature to present total rates of suicide for both men and women combined, it should be noted that the current general epidemiological practice is to present rates according to sex and age, particularly when important differences (in terms of figures or risk factors) across sex or age groups exist. This is precisely the situation in relation to suicide; suicide rates of men and women are consistently different in most places, as are rates in different age groups.
Figure 1 also highlights the relatively constant predominance of suicide rates in males over suicide rates in females: 3.2:1 in 1950, 3.6:1 in 1995 and 3.9:1 in 2020. There is only one exception (China), where suicide rates in females are consistently higher than suicide rates in males, particularly in rural areas (3).
There is a clear tendency for suicide rates to increase with age (Figure 2). By comparison with a global suicide rate of 26.9 deaths per 100,000 for men in 1998, the rates for specific age groups start at 1.2 (in the age group 5-14 years) and gradually increase up to 55.7 (in the age group over 75 years). The same positive relationship between age and suicide rates is observed in females: for an overall rate of 8.2 in 1998, specific age group rates grow from 0.5 per 100,000 (in the age group 5-14 years) to 18.8 (in the age group over 75 years).
Figure 2
Distribution of suicide rates (per 100,000) by gender and age, 1998
In spite of the wide and appropriate use of rates, the information conveyed by them alone can be misleading, particularly when comparing data across countries or regions with important differences in the demographic structure. As indicated earlier, the highest suicide rates are currently reported in Eastern Europe; however, the largest numbers of suicides are found in Asia. Given the size of their population, almost 30% of all cases of suicide worldwide are committed in China and India alone, although the suicide rate of China practically coincides with the global average and that of India is almost half of the global suicide rate. The number of suicides in China alone is 30% greater than the total number of suicides in the whole of Europe, and the number of suicides in India alone (the second highest) is equivalent to those in the four European countries with the highest number of suicides together (Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine).
Given the relatively narrow differences in the population of males and females in each age group, the large predominance of suicide rates among males is also found in relation to the actual number of suicides committed.
It is in relation to age, however, that the most striking changes are perceived when we move from rates to total numbers. Although suicide rates can be between six and eight times higher among the elderly, as compared with young people, currently more young people than elderly people are dying from suicide, globally speaking. Currently, more suicides (55%) are committed by people aged 5-44 years than by people aged 45 years and older (Figure 3). Accordingly, the age group in which most suicides are currently completed is 35-44 years for both men and women.
Figure 3
Distribution of suicide rates (per 100,000) by gender and age, 1998
This shift in the predominance of numbers of suicide from the elderly to young people is a new phenomenon. It becomes dramatic when one considers that the proportion of the elderly in the total population is increasing at a greater rate than the one of younger people. Also, it is not the result of a divergent modification in suicide rates in these age groups: the suicide rate in young people is increasing at a greater pace than it is in the elderly.
Top
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
References
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
The presence of a mental disorder is an important risk factor for suicide. It is generally acknowledged that over 90% of those who committed suicide had a psychiatric diagnosis at the time of death.
In order to discuss the implications of psychiatric diagnosis for suicide prevention, we have undertaken a systematic review of studies reporting diagnoses of mental disorders. Preliminary findings are to be found elsewhere (4,5).
The review included 31 papers, published between 1959 and 2001 world wide. In total, 15,629 cases of suicide in the general population (above the age of 10 years, both sexes) were identified. Papers focusing only on specific age groups, such as young people or the elderly, or only on specific disorders, such as depression or schizophrenia, were excluded; usually these studies included a rather small sample size. All studies retained refer to people with or without history of admission to mental hospitals (47.5% versus 52.5%, respectively). The diagnostic methods included both diagnoses established while the person was still alive and post-mortem diagnoses based on e.g. psychological autopsies (6). All diagnoses of mental disorders were made on the basis of ICD (8, 9 or 10) or DSM (III, IIIR or IV) and converted to general categories common to both systems.
It is noteworthy that the geographical and cultural representation of the cases was limited, since 82.1% of the cases originated from Europe and North America, whereas cases of Asian countries (including Australia and New Zealand) constituted the remaining part.
The overall results showed that 98% of those who committed suicide had a diagnosable mental disorder, and in this paper we will concentrate on the differences between the psychiatric diagnoses of general populations and of populations which had been admitted to mental hospitals. Out of the 15,629 cases reviewed, 7,424 cases (47.5%) had been admitted at least once to a psychiatric hospital or ward (heretofore designated as PIP), whereas there was no indication of this type of admission in 8,205 cases (52.5%), heretofore designated as GP.
Table 1 shows the distribution of the diagnoses found in all cases. It should be noted that in some studies on GP (but in none on PIP) multiple diagnoses were established, thus making the number of diagnoses greater than the number of cases.
Table 1
Diagnoses of mental disorders in cases of suicide in psychiatric inpatient and general populations
Unsurprisingly, a psychiatric diagnosis was made in the majority of people who committed suicide; in 3.2% of the cases of GP and in 0.1% of PIP a psychiatric diagnosis was not established, which leaves it open whether there were no good conditions or information for the establishment of a psychiatric diagnosis or whether the person did not actually have a diagnosable mental disorder.
Apart from the predominance of mood disorders in both groups (however, with an important difference between them), there are major differences in the prevalence of psychiatric diagnoses across these two groups, as highlighted below (Figures 4 and 5):
Mood disorders (actually, depression, since a minority of cases of mania was identified in association with suicide) were the most frequently found mental disorders in both types of populations; however, it amounted to 20.8% of PIP and 35.8% of GP, a much smaller percentage than what is currently held.
Schizophrenia is the second most frequent diagnosis in the PIP (19.9%), but only the fourth in GP (10.6%).
Substance-related disorders (actually, alcohol-related disorders, in the vast majority of the cases) was the second most frequent diagnosis in GP (22.4%) but only the sixth in PIP (9.8%).
Personality disorders were third both in PIP (15.2%, a percentage quite similar to organic mental disorders) and in GP (11.6%).
Both organic mental disorders and other psychotic disorders each represented more than 10% of all diagnoses in PIP (15% and 10.4%, respectively), but were below 1% in GP (1% and 0.3%, respectively).
All other individual disorders represented less that 5% of all diagnoses, with the exception of anxiety/somatoform disorders in GP (6.1%, but only 2.5% in PIP).
The combination of the two major psychotic disorders (schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders) in PIP amounts to 30.3% of all cases, which is 50% higher than mood disorders, in this group. If we transfer the few cases of mania from mood disorders into psychotic disorders, this gap is further increased.
The comorbidity of mood disorders with substancerelated disorders (in practice, depression and alcoholism) was the most frequently found by those GP studies that recorded multiple diagnoses (all PIP studies gave only one main diagnosis).
Figure 4
Suicide and mental disorders: distribution of diagnoses in studies with psychiatric inpatients
Figure 5
Suicide and mental disorders: distribution of diagnoses in studies with general population
Top
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
References
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
The data presented above clearly point out the appropriateness of the treatment of mental disorders as a major component of suicide prevention programmes. However, on the one hand, suicide is found associated with a variety of mental disorders, each one of them with a different therapeutic approach, thus making a 'blanket approach' probably unsound. On the other hand, no single mental disorder is found in association with suicide with such a magnitude as to have any significant impact in national suicide rates, should its treatment be even at an impossible 100% of effectiveness.
Although the data presented here included all the studies found in the whole scientific literature in English, through the methodology described earlier on, more than 80% of the cases come from three countries only, namely Denmark, UK and USA. It is quite possible that a different diagnostic distribution be found in other countries or regions. Actually, there are indications that in the Baltic region alcohol-related disorders have a stronger association with suicide than in other regions (7) and that in Asia less suicides are associated with depression, in comparison with Western countries (8,9). According to these authors, in Asian countries there are more suicides of the impulsive type, committed within hours of the triggering factor, than what is usually seen in industrialized countries.
Therefore, a sound suicide prevention strategy should definitely include the treatment of the disorders most fre- quently associated with suicide, on a local basis. In the absence of the relevant information, it should include the treatment of at least schizophrenia, depression and alcohol- related disorders as a main component, but should not overlook other components more dependent on the social and physical environment, as proposed by the WHO human-ecological approach (10).
According to this approach, other actions to prevent suicide include:
Control of the availability of toxic substances and medicines;
Detoxification of domestic gas and car emissions;
Restricted access to guns;
Responsible media reporting about suicide;
Erection of barriers to deter jumping from high places.
At any rate, suicide remains a major public health problem, nevertheless preventable, and action for its prevention calls for a coordinated multisectoral approach. In view of the close association between suicide and mental disorders, psychiatrists are in a particularly strategic position to lead effective suicide prevention programmes.
Top
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
References
References
1.
Schmidtke A, Bille-Brahe U, De Leo D, et al., editors. Suicidal behaviour in Europe: results from the WHO/EURO multicentre study on suicidal behaviour. Bern: Hogrefe & Huber; 2001.
2.
World Health Organization. Figures and facts about suicide. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1999.
3.
Phillips MR. Li X. Zhang Y. Suicide rates in China, 1995–99. Lancet. 2002;359:835–840. [PubMed]
4.
Bertolote JM. Fleischmann A. Suicide rates in China. Lancet. 2002;359:2274. [PubMed]
5.
Bertolote JM. Fleischmann A. Suicide and mental disorders in the general population. Submitted for publication.
6.
Beskow J. Runeson B. Asgard U. Psychological autopsies: methods and ethics. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior. 1990;20:307–323. [PubMed]
7.
Wasserman D. Värnik A. Suicide-preventive effects of perestroika in the former USSR: the role of alcohol restriction. Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1998;98(Suppl. 394):1–4. [PubMed]
8.
Phillips MR. Suicide rates in China. Lancet. 2002;359:2274.
9.
Vijayakumar L. Rajkumar S. Are risk factors for suicide universal? A case-control study in India. Acta Psychiatr. Scand. 1999;99:407–411. [PubMed]
10.
World Health Organization. Primary prevention of mental, neurological and psychosocial disorders. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1998.
Data from developed countries (mostly in the North of Europe and of America, and a few countries of the Western Pacific Region) are received on a mostly regular basis. Most developing countries (in Latin America, Asia and in the Eastern Mediterranean Region) report on an irregular basis; very few countries in Africa regularly report on mortality to WHO.
Deaths associated with suicide are an integral part of the WHO mortality data bank. Throughout consecutive editions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-6 to ICD-10), the category name and code of suicide have remained relatively stable. Suicide data are reported in absolute numbers along with the mid-year population of a country. The suicide rates are usually represented by country, year, sex, and age group. The most recent data available to the WHO can be accessed through its web site (www.who.int).
The official figures made available to WHO by its Member States are based on death certificates signed by legally authorized personnel, usually doctors and, to a lesser extent, police officers. Generally speaking, these professionals do not misrepresent the information. However, suicide may be hidden and underreported for several reasons, e.g. as a result of prevailing social or religious attitudes. In some places, it is believed that suicide is underreported by a percentage between 20% and 100%. This underlines the importance of bringing about corrections and improvement on a world wide basis.
In contrast to data on completed suicide, no country in the world reports to WHO official statistics on attempted suicide (and most probably countries do not collect them), which makes it impossible to relate national trends of suicide to national trends of attempted suicide. In the absence of national data, one is forced to rely on local studies, which vary considerably, for instance in terms of the operational definition of attempted suicide. The WHO/EURO Multicentre Study on Suicidal Behaviour (1) constitutes a major step forward in this area.
Top
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
References
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
According to calculations based on data reported to WHO by its Member States, in 1998 suicide represented 1.8% of the global burden of disease and it is expected to increase to 2.4% by the year 2020. Suicide is among the 10 leading causes of death for all ages in most of the countries for which information is available. In some countries, it is among the top three causes of death for people aged 15-34 years.
In the year 2020, approximately 1.53 million people will die from suicide based on current trends and according to WHO estimates. Ten to 20 times more people will attempt suicide worldwide (2). This represents on average one death every 20 seconds and one attempt every 1-2 seconds.
The highest suicide rates for both men and women are found in Europe, more particularly in Eastern Europe, in a group of countries that share similar historical and sociocultural characteristics, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and, to a lesser extent, Finland, Hungary and the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, some similarly high rates are found in countries that are quite distinct in relation to these characteristics, such as Sri Lanka and Cuba.
According to the WHO regional distribution, the lowest rates as a whole are found in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, which comprises mostly countries that follow Islamic traditions; this is also true of some Central Asian republics that had formerly been integrated into the Soviet Union. Curiously enough, when the data are separated by WHO region, the highest rates in each region, with the exception of Europe, are found in island countries, such as Cuba, Japan, Mauritius and Sri Lanka.
In Figure 1, global suicide rates (per 100,000 population) have been calculated starting from 1950. Deaths reported by countries in each year were averaged and projected in relation to the global population over 5 years of age at each respective year. An increase of approximately 49% for suicide rates in males and 33% for suicide rates in females can be observed between 1950 and 1995.
Figure 1
Global suicide rates since 1950 and projected trends until 2020
The increase in these global suicide rates must be interpreted with caution. On the one hand, it might reflect the fact that since the end of the USSR (which had an overall rate below the average), some of its former republics (particularly those with the highest rates in the world) started to report individually, thus inflating the global rate. On the other hand, figures for 1950 were based on 11 countries only, and this gradually increased up to 1995, when the estimates were based on 62 countries that reported on suicide. These 62 countries as a whole probably have higher rates, are more concerned with them and have a higher tendency to report on suicide mortality than countries where suicide is not perceived as a major public health problem.
Although it is customary in the suicidology literature to present total rates of suicide for both men and women combined, it should be noted that the current general epidemiological practice is to present rates according to sex and age, particularly when important differences (in terms of figures or risk factors) across sex or age groups exist. This is precisely the situation in relation to suicide; suicide rates of men and women are consistently different in most places, as are rates in different age groups.
Figure 1 also highlights the relatively constant predominance of suicide rates in males over suicide rates in females: 3.2:1 in 1950, 3.6:1 in 1995 and 3.9:1 in 2020. There is only one exception (China), where suicide rates in females are consistently higher than suicide rates in males, particularly in rural areas (3).
There is a clear tendency for suicide rates to increase with age (Figure 2). By comparison with a global suicide rate of 26.9 deaths per 100,000 for men in 1998, the rates for specific age groups start at 1.2 (in the age group 5-14 years) and gradually increase up to 55.7 (in the age group over 75 years). The same positive relationship between age and suicide rates is observed in females: for an overall rate of 8.2 in 1998, specific age group rates grow from 0.5 per 100,000 (in the age group 5-14 years) to 18.8 (in the age group over 75 years).
Figure 2
Distribution of suicide rates (per 100,000) by gender and age, 1998
In spite of the wide and appropriate use of rates, the information conveyed by them alone can be misleading, particularly when comparing data across countries or regions with important differences in the demographic structure. As indicated earlier, the highest suicide rates are currently reported in Eastern Europe; however, the largest numbers of suicides are found in Asia. Given the size of their population, almost 30% of all cases of suicide worldwide are committed in China and India alone, although the suicide rate of China practically coincides with the global average and that of India is almost half of the global suicide rate. The number of suicides in China alone is 30% greater than the total number of suicides in the whole of Europe, and the number of suicides in India alone (the second highest) is equivalent to those in the four European countries with the highest number of suicides together (Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine).
Given the relatively narrow differences in the population of males and females in each age group, the large predominance of suicide rates among males is also found in relation to the actual number of suicides committed.
It is in relation to age, however, that the most striking changes are perceived when we move from rates to total numbers. Although suicide rates can be between six and eight times higher among the elderly, as compared with young people, currently more young people than elderly people are dying from suicide, globally speaking. Currently, more suicides (55%) are committed by people aged 5-44 years than by people aged 45 years and older (Figure 3). Accordingly, the age group in which most suicides are currently completed is 35-44 years for both men and women.
Figure 3
Distribution of suicide rates (per 100,000) by gender and age, 1998
This shift in the predominance of numbers of suicide from the elderly to young people is a new phenomenon. It becomes dramatic when one considers that the proportion of the elderly in the total population is increasing at a greater rate than the one of younger people. Also, it is not the result of a divergent modification in suicide rates in these age groups: the suicide rate in young people is increasing at a greater pace than it is in the elderly.
Top
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
References
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
The presence of a mental disorder is an important risk factor for suicide. It is generally acknowledged that over 90% of those who committed suicide had a psychiatric diagnosis at the time of death.
In order to discuss the implications of psychiatric diagnosis for suicide prevention, we have undertaken a systematic review of studies reporting diagnoses of mental disorders. Preliminary findings are to be found elsewhere (4,5).
The review included 31 papers, published between 1959 and 2001 world wide. In total, 15,629 cases of suicide in the general population (above the age of 10 years, both sexes) were identified. Papers focusing only on specific age groups, such as young people or the elderly, or only on specific disorders, such as depression or schizophrenia, were excluded; usually these studies included a rather small sample size. All studies retained refer to people with or without history of admission to mental hospitals (47.5% versus 52.5%, respectively). The diagnostic methods included both diagnoses established while the person was still alive and post-mortem diagnoses based on e.g. psychological autopsies (6). All diagnoses of mental disorders were made on the basis of ICD (8, 9 or 10) or DSM (III, IIIR or IV) and converted to general categories common to both systems.
It is noteworthy that the geographical and cultural representation of the cases was limited, since 82.1% of the cases originated from Europe and North America, whereas cases of Asian countries (including Australia and New Zealand) constituted the remaining part.
The overall results showed that 98% of those who committed suicide had a diagnosable mental disorder, and in this paper we will concentrate on the differences between the psychiatric diagnoses of general populations and of populations which had been admitted to mental hospitals. Out of the 15,629 cases reviewed, 7,424 cases (47.5%) had been admitted at least once to a psychiatric hospital or ward (heretofore designated as PIP), whereas there was no indication of this type of admission in 8,205 cases (52.5%), heretofore designated as GP.
Table 1 shows the distribution of the diagnoses found in all cases. It should be noted that in some studies on GP (but in none on PIP) multiple diagnoses were established, thus making the number of diagnoses greater than the number of cases.
Table 1
Diagnoses of mental disorders in cases of suicide in psychiatric inpatient and general populations
Unsurprisingly, a psychiatric diagnosis was made in the majority of people who committed suicide; in 3.2% of the cases of GP and in 0.1% of PIP a psychiatric diagnosis was not established, which leaves it open whether there were no good conditions or information for the establishment of a psychiatric diagnosis or whether the person did not actually have a diagnosable mental disorder.
Apart from the predominance of mood disorders in both groups (however, with an important difference between them), there are major differences in the prevalence of psychiatric diagnoses across these two groups, as highlighted below (Figures 4 and 5):
Mood disorders (actually, depression, since a minority of cases of mania was identified in association with suicide) were the most frequently found mental disorders in both types of populations; however, it amounted to 20.8% of PIP and 35.8% of GP, a much smaller percentage than what is currently held.
Schizophrenia is the second most frequent diagnosis in the PIP (19.9%), but only the fourth in GP (10.6%).
Substance-related disorders (actually, alcohol-related disorders, in the vast majority of the cases) was the second most frequent diagnosis in GP (22.4%) but only the sixth in PIP (9.8%).
Personality disorders were third both in PIP (15.2%, a percentage quite similar to organic mental disorders) and in GP (11.6%).
Both organic mental disorders and other psychotic disorders each represented more than 10% of all diagnoses in PIP (15% and 10.4%, respectively), but were below 1% in GP (1% and 0.3%, respectively).
All other individual disorders represented less that 5% of all diagnoses, with the exception of anxiety/somatoform disorders in GP (6.1%, but only 2.5% in PIP).
The combination of the two major psychotic disorders (schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders) in PIP amounts to 30.3% of all cases, which is 50% higher than mood disorders, in this group. If we transfer the few cases of mania from mood disorders into psychotic disorders, this gap is further increased.
The comorbidity of mood disorders with substancerelated disorders (in practice, depression and alcoholism) was the most frequently found by those GP studies that recorded multiple diagnoses (all PIP studies gave only one main diagnosis).
Figure 4
Suicide and mental disorders: distribution of diagnoses in studies with psychiatric inpatients
Figure 5
Suicide and mental disorders: distribution of diagnoses in studies with general population
Top
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
References
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
The data presented above clearly point out the appropriateness of the treatment of mental disorders as a major component of suicide prevention programmes. However, on the one hand, suicide is found associated with a variety of mental disorders, each one of them with a different therapeutic approach, thus making a 'blanket approach' probably unsound. On the other hand, no single mental disorder is found in association with suicide with such a magnitude as to have any significant impact in national suicide rates, should its treatment be even at an impossible 100% of effectiveness.
Although the data presented here included all the studies found in the whole scientific literature in English, through the methodology described earlier on, more than 80% of the cases come from three countries only, namely Denmark, UK and USA. It is quite possible that a different diagnostic distribution be found in other countries or regions. Actually, there are indications that in the Baltic region alcohol-related disorders have a stronger association with suicide than in other regions (7) and that in Asia less suicides are associated with depression, in comparison with Western countries (8,9). According to these authors, in Asian countries there are more suicides of the impulsive type, committed within hours of the triggering factor, than what is usually seen in industrialized countries.
Therefore, a sound suicide prevention strategy should definitely include the treatment of the disorders most fre- quently associated with suicide, on a local basis. In the absence of the relevant information, it should include the treatment of at least schizophrenia, depression and alcohol- related disorders as a main component, but should not overlook other components more dependent on the social and physical environment, as proposed by the WHO human-ecological approach (10).
According to this approach, other actions to prevent suicide include:
Control of the availability of toxic substances and medicines;
Detoxification of domestic gas and car emissions;
Restricted access to guns;
Responsible media reporting about suicide;
Erection of barriers to deter jumping from high places.
At any rate, suicide remains a major public health problem, nevertheless preventable, and action for its prevention calls for a coordinated multisectoral approach. In view of the close association between suicide and mental disorders, psychiatrists are in a particularly strategic position to lead effective suicide prevention programmes.
Top
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
SUICIDE AND MENTAL DISORDERS
IMPLICATIONS FOR PREVENTION
References
References
1.
Schmidtke A, Bille-Brahe U, De Leo D, et al., editors. Suicidal behaviour in Europe: results from the WHO/EURO multicentre study on suicidal behaviour. Bern: Hogrefe & Huber; 2001.
2.
World Health Organization. Figures and facts about suicide. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1999.
3.
Phillips MR. Li X. Zhang Y. Suicide rates in China, 1995–99. Lancet. 2002;359:835–840. [PubMed]
4.
Bertolote JM. Fleischmann A. Suicide rates in China. Lancet. 2002;359:2274. [PubMed]
5.
Bertolote JM. Fleischmann A. Suicide and mental disorders in the general population. Submitted for publication.
6.
Beskow J. Runeson B. Asgard U. Psychological autopsies: methods and ethics. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior. 1990;20:307–323. [PubMed]
7.
Wasserman D. Värnik A. Suicide-preventive effects of perestroika in the former USSR: the role of alcohol restriction. Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1998;98(Suppl. 394):1–4. [PubMed]
8.
Phillips MR. Suicide rates in China. Lancet. 2002;359:2274.
9.
Vijayakumar L. Rajkumar S. Are risk factors for suicide universal? A case-control study in India. Acta Psychiatr. Scand. 1999;99:407–411. [PubMed]
10.
World Health Organization. Primary prevention of mental, neurological and psychosocial disorders. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1998.
Questions
How do I upload photo's to my web page?
How do I upload final cut or quicktime movies to my web page?
Can I put a message onto each page of the web site announcing it's under construction?
How do I place links onto the web page?
How can I link back to the homepage from other pages?
How do I upload final cut or quicktime movies to my web page?
Can I put a message onto each page of the web site announcing it's under construction?
How do I place links onto the web page?
How can I link back to the homepage from other pages?
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
to meet up!
i thought i would guest author you blog and do some shamless self promoting!
we need to get together and talk about that thing!
also visit the link for my blog page (leegavin.blogspot.com)
and my page for realted to one of my ideas (artanonymous.blogspot.com)
also if you would like to send some pictures to me via mobile of email, of anyhting you may have saved on your computer or mobile!
thank you tony, i wish you the best of luck!
we need to get together and talk about that thing!
also visit the link for my blog page (leegavin.blogspot.com)
and my page for realted to one of my ideas (artanonymous.blogspot.com)
also if you would like to send some pictures to me via mobile of email, of anyhting you may have saved on your computer or mobile!
thank you tony, i wish you the best of luck!
Friday, October 12, 2007
Tutorial
Well what did I get out of yesterdays tutorial?
I discussed the fact that I am changing my approach to better suit my style of photography, Adam reminded me that I should continue with my curiosity towards the human form and what I see people doing to themselves, this will be great for building my portfolio.
I said how the approach I've taken to research this brief is somewhat confusing to me, and I might revert back to my old way's! we will see.
Thing's to focus on, fetting the blog read by a wider audience, what can draw people in?
More links, the web page, an email, podcast etc.
I need people to comment!
I discussed the fact that I am changing my approach to better suit my style of photography, Adam reminded me that I should continue with my curiosity towards the human form and what I see people doing to themselves, this will be great for building my portfolio.
I said how the approach I've taken to research this brief is somewhat confusing to me, and I might revert back to my old way's! we will see.
Thing's to focus on, fetting the blog read by a wider audience, what can draw people in?
More links, the web page, an email, podcast etc.
I need people to comment!
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Average Life expectancy
Thursday, 9 May, 2002, 18:06 GMT 19:06 UK
Life expectancy to soar
Erzsebet Keri, 73, being strapped to the wing of a plane
There is "no sign" of a ceiling on life expectancy
People are set to live increasingly long lives, and reaching 100 will soon be "commonplace", say experts.
They say that although there is no prospect of immortality, the trend for living increasingly long lives looks set to continue.
Centenarians - 100-year-olds - will become unexceptional within the lifetimes of people alive today, according to Jim Oeppen, from Cambridge University, UK, and Dr James Vaupel, from the Max Plank Institute for Demography in Rostock, Germany.
They said there was no sign there was a natural limit, as some experts had predicted.
Each time one has been suggested, it has been exceeded within five years.
Increased life expectancy
The researchers' suggestion that life expectancies could rise is based on patterns seen since 1840.
This is far from eternity: modest annual increments in life expectancy will never lead to immortality
Researchers Jim Oeppen and Dr James Vaupel
Since then, the highest average life expectancy has improved by a quarter of a year every year.
If that trend continues, the researchers say people in the country with the highest life expectancy would live to an average age of 100 in about six decades.
The researchers wrote in the journal Science: "This is far from eternity: modest annual increments in life expectancy will never lead to immortality.
"It is striking, however, that centenarians may become commonplace within the lifetimes of people living today."
Average lifespan around the world is around double what it was 200 years ago. It is now around 65 for men and 70 for women.
Japanese women are currently the likeliest to live long lives, on average reaching 84.6 years of age.
Japanese men are the second longest male survivors, reaching an average age of 77.6 years old.
'No ceiling'
The British rank well down the list. Men come in at 14th in the world table, living to an average age of 75 while women are in 18th place, living on average to 79.9.
In France, there is a big difference between men and women's life expectancy.
Men came 16th in the world table, with an average lifespan of 74.9, with French women in fourth place with a life expectancy of 82.4 years.
British women
British women have a life expectancy of 79.9
Mr Oeppen, senior research associate at the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, said: "One of the assumptions is that life expectancy will rise a bit and then reach a ceiling it cannot go through.
"But people have been assuming that since the 1920s and it hasn't proved to be the case.
"If we were close to the ceiling we might expect the survival of Japanese women now to be improving at a slower rate. But the improvement in Japan is among the fastest in the world."
He added: "I think there is a ceiling, but we don't know where it is. We haven't got there yet."
Mr Oeppen and Dr Vaupel said their predictions meant even the highest forecast for numbers of elderly people in the future could be too low, affecting decisions over pensions, health care, and other social needs.
Political reaction
Frank Field, Labour MP for Birkenhead and chairman of the all-party committee on pensions, welcomed the report.
He called for an independent body to be set up to examine the need for an increase in the retirement age.
He said: "If you look at life expectancy in 1948, when the state pension was introduced, and take that as a reasonable length of time to receive a pension, you would have a retirement age of 74 today."
Life expectancy to soar
Erzsebet Keri, 73, being strapped to the wing of a plane
There is "no sign" of a ceiling on life expectancy
People are set to live increasingly long lives, and reaching 100 will soon be "commonplace", say experts.
They say that although there is no prospect of immortality, the trend for living increasingly long lives looks set to continue.
Centenarians - 100-year-olds - will become unexceptional within the lifetimes of people alive today, according to Jim Oeppen, from Cambridge University, UK, and Dr James Vaupel, from the Max Plank Institute for Demography in Rostock, Germany.
They said there was no sign there was a natural limit, as some experts had predicted.
Each time one has been suggested, it has been exceeded within five years.
Increased life expectancy
The researchers' suggestion that life expectancies could rise is based on patterns seen since 1840.
This is far from eternity: modest annual increments in life expectancy will never lead to immortality
Researchers Jim Oeppen and Dr James Vaupel
Since then, the highest average life expectancy has improved by a quarter of a year every year.
If that trend continues, the researchers say people in the country with the highest life expectancy would live to an average age of 100 in about six decades.
The researchers wrote in the journal Science: "This is far from eternity: modest annual increments in life expectancy will never lead to immortality.
"It is striking, however, that centenarians may become commonplace within the lifetimes of people living today."
Average lifespan around the world is around double what it was 200 years ago. It is now around 65 for men and 70 for women.
Japanese women are currently the likeliest to live long lives, on average reaching 84.6 years of age.
Japanese men are the second longest male survivors, reaching an average age of 77.6 years old.
'No ceiling'
The British rank well down the list. Men come in at 14th in the world table, living to an average age of 75 while women are in 18th place, living on average to 79.9.
In France, there is a big difference between men and women's life expectancy.
Men came 16th in the world table, with an average lifespan of 74.9, with French women in fourth place with a life expectancy of 82.4 years.
British women
British women have a life expectancy of 79.9
Mr Oeppen, senior research associate at the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, said: "One of the assumptions is that life expectancy will rise a bit and then reach a ceiling it cannot go through.
"But people have been assuming that since the 1920s and it hasn't proved to be the case.
"If we were close to the ceiling we might expect the survival of Japanese women now to be improving at a slower rate. But the improvement in Japan is among the fastest in the world."
He added: "I think there is a ceiling, but we don't know where it is. We haven't got there yet."
Mr Oeppen and Dr Vaupel said their predictions meant even the highest forecast for numbers of elderly people in the future could be too low, affecting decisions over pensions, health care, and other social needs.
Political reaction
Frank Field, Labour MP for Birkenhead and chairman of the all-party committee on pensions, welcomed the report.
He called for an independent body to be set up to examine the need for an increase in the retirement age.
He said: "If you look at life expectancy in 1948, when the state pension was introduced, and take that as a reasonable length of time to receive a pension, you would have a retirement age of 74 today."
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Yoga Soo
Well the other week, following on with what I was saying about using this as some sort of spring board into new things, I meet this woman at work, she came in to get some photocopies done, I of course gave her assistance, she was very thankful.
Well being nosey I spotted her photocopies, they were of some yoga positions. I made the mistake of asking her if she was into dance? (I know what has that got to do with yoga)?
She corrected me and said it was yoga, now Soo is not a young woman (age wise), but had a really good body, I know that sounds pervy, but it really is'nt.
I then asked if she had any interest in having some photo's taken of her in some yoga poses, (of course I was thinking of myself).
She said that she had already got some on the internet, she already has a web page, but she would be interested in updating them. Hooray, I thought.
I will now be arranging a day to do a shoot with her, This will also be a begging of something that has interested me for a while, how we can use our bodies to do some amazing things, I hope I can capture that in these images!
Wait and see..
Well being nosey I spotted her photocopies, they were of some yoga positions. I made the mistake of asking her if she was into dance? (I know what has that got to do with yoga)?
She corrected me and said it was yoga, now Soo is not a young woman (age wise), but had a really good body, I know that sounds pervy, but it really is'nt.
I then asked if she had any interest in having some photo's taken of her in some yoga poses, (of course I was thinking of myself).
She said that she had already got some on the internet, she already has a web page, but she would be interested in updating them. Hooray, I thought.
I will now be arranging a day to do a shoot with her, This will also be a begging of something that has interested me for a while, how we can use our bodies to do some amazing things, I hope I can capture that in these images!
Wait and see..
Continuing into the future
I have decided that this brief/project will continue into the future, I will use this as the first steps to an ongoing body of work/portfolio.
I have always been interested in the human form and the amount of diversity the human form has, we are stuck with our bodies and we use them in many different ways. I will explore this far beyond this brief and even the degree.
I think I am beggining to find my way.. scary stuff!
I have always been interested in the human form and the amount of diversity the human form has, we are stuck with our bodies and we use them in many different ways. I will explore this far beyond this brief and even the degree.
I think I am beggining to find my way.. scary stuff!
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Dreamweaver
Finally found out how to place my Photoshop made buttons into dreamweaver and launch them onto the web page.
I have now assigned each button with its link page, so the rest is all about content.
I will also have to add some links, such as an email, this blog, possibly a podcast? etc.
People
I am finding it very difficult to decide on what type of Male/Females I should be taking Photo's of! I as a personal thing, like to approach what I call interesting people, people that have something about them that stands out from what I call the norm!! (whatever taht means)?
Alot of people get a bit defensive when asked for a portrait, but I don't want to take them without their permission!
Of course I can use the rest of the photography group?
Alot of people get a bit defensive when asked for a portrait, but I don't want to take them without their permission!
Of course I can use the rest of the photography group?
Blog action day
I have also just commited to the blog action day, which was recommended by Mr Gavin.
http://blogactionday.org/commit
http://blogactionday.org/commit
Monday, October 08, 2007
Web Content
This is the plan, I am going to start recording male and female Photo's for the web site, they are going to range from a baby in the womb to 100 years of age (for both sexes).
Of course I can see that this will be a very difficult task to undertake, but as the title Shifting Destinations denotes, It may not be entirely true!
Of course I can see that this will be a very difficult task to undertake, but as the title Shifting Destinations denotes, It may not be entirely true!
Shifting/Destinations
Shifting:- Move or cause to move from one place to anotherover a small distance.
"change the emphasis, direction or focus"
Be avasive or indirect.
something that is constantly changing, unpredictably.
Destinations:- Being a place that people will make a special trip to visit.
"the place to which something or someone is going or being sent"
"origin":- or original sense, the action of intending someone or something for a particular purpose.
From the dictionary.
These meanings hold alot of truth in what I am aiming to achieve, I have been changing direction through the progression of the research and through my own thoughts on what the content of my web page should contain.
It makes it very difficult to stay focused on anything which is frustrating aswell as liberating.
"change the emphasis, direction or focus"
Be avasive or indirect.
something that is constantly changing, unpredictably.
Destinations:- Being a place that people will make a special trip to visit.
"the place to which something or someone is going or being sent"
"origin":- or original sense, the action of intending someone or something for a particular purpose.
From the dictionary.
These meanings hold alot of truth in what I am aiming to achieve, I have been changing direction through the progression of the research and through my own thoughts on what the content of my web page should contain.
It makes it very difficult to stay focused on anything which is frustrating aswell as liberating.
Guardian Media Guide 2007
I have been told that this is the directory for every important contact you need to know in the field of media, so I have purchased this years copy from Amazon.co.uk.
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Friday, October 05, 2007
Buisiness Card
I am going to produce a number of buisiness cards to distribute around, announcing the site (when it's up and running)!
I have made up a design for the card:- as above, telling people a little bit about myselfand dangling a carrot for them?
What they won't know is that what they will find on the web site will be pure fiction to them! but maybe not to me?
There will be different age brackets to choose from, they can of course choose there current age, a younger age or even an older age to discover something about themselves, which of course they may not!
I am hoping to recieve comments back from there discoveries or lack of, what ever the case may be.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Tutorial
Well I had my first tutorial on Monday 01/10/07, It was a group tutorial and I chose to take the 1pm - 2pm slot.
When it came to talk about my ideas I was not completely honest with my intentions, but that is all part of the illusion, as we are "shifting Destinations" I thought it would be good to be vague about my real intentions.
For two reasons, 1, I am not completely sure about the finer points, and 2, I want the final announcement to be a suprise at the critique.
Of course certain people that are helping me to get to where I want to be will have some idea, but that is all.
When it came to talk about my ideas I was not completely honest with my intentions, but that is all part of the illusion, as we are "shifting Destinations" I thought it would be good to be vague about my real intentions.
For two reasons, 1, I am not completely sure about the finer points, and 2, I want the final announcement to be a suprise at the critique.
Of course certain people that are helping me to get to where I want to be will have some idea, but that is all.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
First reply
Please find a GQ Media Pack attached
Best wishes
Al
-----Original Message-----
From: Charlotte Zamani
Sent: 02 October 2007 13:54
To: Alice Valentine
Subject: FW: Target Audience/Demographic
Would you kindly send him a media pack please?
Charlotte x
Best wishes
Al
-----Original Message-----
From: Charlotte Zamani
Sent: 02 October 2007 13:54
To: Alice Valentine
Subject: FW: Target Audience/Demographic
Would you kindly send him a media pack please?
Charlotte x
Magazines
I have sent off a generic E-mail to a number of magazines asking them about their target audience/demographic.
I am hoping they will respond, this will get me started on who to pitch certain information and images to on the web page. I will header them with a brief description about what catergory they come under.
Below are the people I have contacted so far:-
general@fhm.com
charlotte.zamani@condenast.co.uk
belindap@ripitup.com.au
julie.lasky@id-mag.com
marketing@wallpaper.com
comments@125magazine.com
mel.hutcheon@hf-uk.com
countryliving@hearst.com
woiadvertising@condenast.co.uk
I am hoping they will respond, this will get me started on who to pitch certain information and images to on the web page. I will header them with a brief description about what catergory they come under.
Below are the people I have contacted so far:-
general@fhm.com
charlotte.zamani@condenast.co.uk
belindap@ripitup.com.au
julie.lasky@id-mag.com
marketing@wallpaper.com
comments@125magazine.com
mel.hutcheon@hf-uk.com
countryliving@hearst.com
woiadvertising@condenast.co.uk
Monday, October 01, 2007
Emails
I have just been sent an E-mail from my sister inlaw Kellie from Australia, It holds some relevance I think to this brief.
hey donk,
found this article on an artist frank warren who leaves blank postcards around new york with the intention for people to write their secrets on. they then forward them to him and he posts them on his website www.postsecret.com
you probably already know this but if not have a look.
there are some interesting ones like:
"when i was 16 i found my mothers vibrator. i returned it a year later"
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:-)
hey donk,
found this article on an artist frank warren who leaves blank postcards around new york with the intention for people to write their secrets on. they then forward them to him and he posts them on his website www.postsecret.com
you probably already know this but if not have a look.
there are some interesting ones like:
"when i was 16 i found my mothers vibrator. i returned it a year later"
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:-)
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